Delta_One95


























  1. I post it at the end of every month. Will post again once monthly stats are compiled at the start of July.

  2. You think feb , 2022 prices will be seen by 2027? Asking your opinion sincerely

  3. And stress test is gone now? Also do you think Rates aren't going any higher?

  4. Even if they do, prices have dropped enough to offset any impact to mortgage amount qualifications and look like they will continue to do so.

  5. where are you getting daily data to notice that price drops are accelerating in the past 10 days?

  6. I track weekly sales activity in certain regions as part of my business and saw an uptick in declines in many cities over the last 2 weeks

  7. An extremely bearish realtor, this is very interesting. Not that I don’t believe you, just unusual. I’m sure you can understand

  8. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/mortgage-and-debt/mortgage-delinquency-rate-canada-provinces-cmas

  9. Delinquency is a lagging indicator typically, so to be fair, you using that source isn’t right either.

  10. There was a wave of amateur speculators who bought pre cons from 2020-2022 thinking home values only went up. They have no intention to live in these homes and were thinking they would just assign them to a greater fool when the projects are close to completion.

  11. What does Milton have to pay such ridiculous amount for a townhouse?

  12. This is a detached home not a townhouse. Still overvalued by at least $300-350K though.

  13. People new to Canada who go to RE investment sales pitch meetings usually run by people from their home country/culture so they’re easier to swindle.

  14. Would that apply also in the instance he/she gets a job but with significantly lesser pay?

  15. Has it really dipped though? With the increase in interest rates, mortgage payments have stayed the same despite lower house prices.

  16. Lol - people need to stop spewing this stupid nonsense that monthly payments is all that matters.

  17. And you think they’re bright? How do you think raising interest rates is going to impact oil shortages because of a war?

  18. Oil hikes were recent due to the war and not the only cause of inflation.

  19. It definitely does help quite a few people because the amount they have to save up for a downpayment goes down as property values fall.

  20. You bought before prices went bezerk in Milton and went up another 25-30% by Feb 2022.

  21. That down payment saved by average folks is literally getting chipped away at every rate hike. They slowly won't be able to buy the same home they once could have a few months ago.

  22. My variable is at 2.8 right now after being 1.55 before. at this point, should I lock in a fixed which will be like 4-something?

  23. No need. Fixed is already at 5%. You have enough buffer. Keep the variable

  24. Good analysis. This is one of the leading indicators of a weakening market

  25. They are slowly reverting back to the mean. These condos were never worth $600k+, especially in Pickering

  26. Gotcha - so again no data, just loose statements.

  27. Gotcha - so now we're talking about year on year instead of declines from March.

  28. Yup a couple of lenders have reduced rate hold times and are not honouring them due to the increase in the 5 year yield

  29. You do realise that prices are going down only because rates are up, but demand/supply ratio is worsening? It's all smoke and mirrors but people seem to be happy with it, although affordability hasn't changed at all. As soon as the rates are on the way back, it's over, people will compete again to get houses. The only difference is that at that time, we'll have millions more of new Canadians in the market, ready to play the bidding wars game.

  30. Rates are not going down to a 0.25% overnight rate again. That was an emergency rate decrease due to the pandemic.

  31. We'll see where rates are going, but what is sure is that once inflation is controlled, they will go back down again. If economy suffered during the rate hikes, we might very well see bottom rates again. Noone knows how low though.

  32. Once inflation is controlled, they will maintain rates where they are to keep it steady because if you lower them again, inflation may kickstart again. They are currently trying to find the rate percentage where inflation stabilizes and predict it to be around 3.0% in the overnight rate.

  33. Wait till August. Let rate hikes continue. Prices are coming down still

  34. This means there is big possibility we see 50% off from peak with upcoming rate hikes.

  35. That would be great for housing affordability but I do think its an aggressive prediction. I personally think we’re going to get to somewhere between 35-40% correction as the bottom when this is all said and done.

  36. I would agree about the cities but it should also include wages and cost of living. Toronto salaries are nowhere near San Fran and New York but house prices are up there.

  37. Property is overvalued but it is also highly distorted by ridiculously high valuations in the GVA and GTA.

  38. Now it's time to see the true colors of that crowd emerge

  39. MANY people who are in this sub actively calling for a bottom in a defined timeframe and I will call them what they are: Speculators.

  40. Yup continuing to accelerate. More rate hikes and pain ahead. Keep expenses low and make sure you have a rainy day fund, storm clouds ahead

  41. I’d suspect Canada’s CPI will come in higher as well, as we’re in a very similar situation to the USA. If their inflation is still accelerating likely it is here too.

  42. Yeah it’s GGs for any leveraged asset at the moment with these hikes lol

  43. Because the youth have been eaten by the rich and the old in Canada and many of us are praying this is the reckoning that will save us from living like serfs for the rest of time.

  44. Yup I have two younger siblings on the sideline who did everything right. Went to a good school, got good jobs, saved up as much as they could but saw home prices skyrocket and price them out.

  45. Good school or good program? Big difference. Also what does a “good job” entail?

  46. One of them is a CPA and the other is a mechanical engineer

  47. TLI5, what are they trying to accomplish here?

  48. Destroy demand to bring down inflation before it becomes entrenched and devalues our currency quickly.

  49. Wait six months. Return on capital is horrible right now with inflated prices and rising financing costs.

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