1. Horrible management, Blizzard’s game quality is in the toilet and has been for years, many of the major decades-long content creators and influencers quit WoW to go play FFXIV or other things because it became so bad, and now regularly bash Blizzard and their games, legal problems, etc etc. most recent cod is not anyone’s favorite, Blizzard has nothing but a mobile game coming for years, and that mobile game has been endlessly ridiculed by gamers. Anyone who understands the gamer perception of these companies and their recent trends knows this is not a safe bet. If anything I’d be more interested in analyzing square enix because they will probably significantly beat expectations due to huge increase in interest in FFXIV and its upcoming expansion (just look at their last report in sept when these shifts were still early, wow). Maybe if they fire bobby and the entire blizzard leadership and start fresh, but I don’t see it.

  2. With the recent news, it has been made clear that Zuckerberg will do whatever he wants with the business, hence investing in Facebook is trusting Zuck as a capital allocator. The ones who invested in FB because of the ecommerce opportunity have encountered with the next Zuckerberg bet, the Metaverse which could be disaster or a huge succes.

  3. I don't believe that thinking about 'lighweight' first is the best approach when talking about developing a full fleshed out ERP.

  4. What do you mean? Also would like to do it module by module are not developing all at once

  5. The press hates Facebook, that's I love Facebook. Great company undervalued because of irrelevant news, misinformation and general FUD.

  6. If you have ever opened a 10-K or even know what is a 10-K is, you are already miles past average joe

  7. Most likely between 8-12% based on risk of permanent loss of capital, if I have to apply a higher discount it is because it os too risky, so I wont buy.

  8. Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kanheman

  9. Also check out wisesheets plugin for excel and Google sheets.

  10. I am personally interested in the evolution of the business, so i usually open the last 5 years annual report and read each section from past to present, so I can appreciate how it has evolved. I do this because if I read the entire report from 5 years ago and then the one from 4 years ago, i cant properly remember details.

  11. Actually, regardless of the company, when you’re looking for value opportunities, value does matter.

  12. Not quite, earnings tell you about what has already happened, but an investor in looking into the future. Those things are useful for estimating future earnings. Past earnings or book value may be not representative of the future.

  13. So your theory is that up until this point Facebook has not had software engineering talent, network effects, or monthly average user numbers, but going forward they will?

  14. Obviously not lol, i just say im interested in the evolution of those factors. Do what you want man, you are free to continue valuing companies based in intangibles by book value lol

  15. Time isn’t really limited tho, I’ve got plenty

  16. U are a lucky man then. Have fun then!

  17. Thank you! I have 16 days off per 5 weeks which is why I say that!

  18. Just use both, although I do strongly prefer intrinsic value, it is a measure I can get without knowing the stock price and without anchoring bias.

  19. I think nobody discusses $BABA fundamental being great (although some people believe they are cooking books) the problem is the uncertainty from de Chinese Government.

  20. I feel like i must recall this: Omission errors are also errors. Selling too early is still an error, and it may be worse than a commission error. Still, i kind of agree, don't get too greedy.

  21. Sounds too good to be true. Sudden crash of stock price this much may not be without reason. Do you know the underlying cracks and reason for the sell off?

  22. Thank you. I am in general agreement on some of these things you reflected upon. Things I differ: 1. It’s not small at 30B market cap, I guess that is usd per E*TRADE I checked. I can ignore chip shortage but China going short is real, just like Russian stocks never recovered since Putin. Chinese economy would do fine, not western capital markets going to embrace them . I am certain beyond sun rising from east tomorrow, western world will stay China short for next decade or more. This is an auto industry driven, hence cyclical like crazy. I think Peter Lynch’s comments about auto industry investing is right. He says wait until crash in auto stocks and wait for pent-up demand to increase. Now is the worst time to invest in auto market anything. I like this stock, will put some trackers and wait to trigger down the road. I fear this sector is where spending will be cut when auto sales reverse. Considering negative future, ev to ebita of 10 means fairly decent price but not cheap. Thanks again,for your reflections.

  23. It is only $5.68 B of market cap. I dont like china or cyclical either so I can relate hahaha. Thank you for the comments!

  24. $BAM Real Estate & Infrastructure

  25. "You can also be a stock market genius" by Joel Greenblat. Great book and great inveator.

  26. $BAM Great CEO, one of the best capital allocators in the world. Solid company in a resilient bit growing sector that own assets that will be still generating returns 50 years from now. Also, it is valued at a fair price.

  27. Thinking Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman - is a great book on these topics of interest.

  28. Yeah, should be noted that there arent really 2 parts, system 1 and 2 are just an easy way of understanding how it works.

  29. A safe bet i think would be $BAM, although i dont think it is considered growth. Another good option would be $FB.

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