1. Https://

  2. Basically he says things have bogged down, RU have lost the initiative and momentum, it is now a war of attrition and that is to the advantage of Ukraine as they train up new units. He seemed a bit envious of all the Ukrainian units who had not even seen battle yet. I think most people agree with this analysis and are hopeful for Ukr to advance well when they set about it in a couple of months.

  3. Russians turn on Putin as failures mount.

  4. Interesting, I thought it was going to be a lot of pap, a filler piece, but it seems the Donets river crossing has caught the attention of some bloggers with 'millions' of followers. Lets hope this continues, it will be highly demotivating for Russian troops if Russians start complaining about the invasion and talking about the extreme loss of life.

  5. Well, the ones that seemed likely to do that died.

  6. It is all about control of the media message. Currently he meets the heads of the media outlets once a week and tells them what to say. They can let some mild criticism through, it would be too weird if they did not. But in a nut shell he can say 'we are fighting against incredible odds, against Nato, our great and mighty forces are doing wonderfully' and he can stay in power for as long as he wants.

  7. They interviewed on Radio 4 UK a guy who could turn 'the right sort of person' into a terrorist within as little as few days. The vulnerable young men feel oppressed, they feel insignificant, they are a bit innocent too and they are at a loose end. That's all, they don't have to be evil or psycho's or anything, because they are convinced by their guru what they are doing is for 'a great cause', that they 'are heroes', and are part of a completely justified revenge crusade to teach people a lesson. It gives their life a purpose, it gives them a 'family' and a sense of importance which they have never had.

  8. 70-90 vehicles and 300 troops has been the average for the last 83 days!

  9. At mid-summer the tide will turn, Ukraine's new weapons, trained recruits will be put against a depleted Russia.


  11. Europe has not been able to completely veto Russian gas, they just said they would try and get off it as soon as possible.

  12. We know who gets rich in the process. No war has gone unprofitable for the US. Every single war has turned a profit through preferential contracts in rebuilding one way or another, sweet bids to NATO allied countries not to mention the MIC.

  13. The Iraq war cost the US over $2 trillion, and the oil that the US got was less than $100 billion.

  14. Sure it can. I mean I generally agree with your position war profiteering but the grenade has no intrinsic value. Its the opportunity costs that generate the value here. If the cost of a piece of an occupied piece of land is 25 soldiers armed with rifles or 10 when they’re armed grenades too I’ve just acquired the same asset with a lower cost. Profits can increase either by increasing revenues or reducing costs. The grenade isn’t the end product here it would be more analogous to consider it as a raw material input towards a finished product. The finished product here being the seizure of land.

  15. Sure if land was seized that would help balance the books as it has value though obviously in all of the last wars America has been involved in the land has only been held temporarily and, aside from oil in Iraq, America has not derived money from it.

  16. I'm OK with the appearance, but not sold on the behavior. Do we have evidence that the megacarnivores like T. Rex cared for their young? I know there is fossil evidence that some dinosaurs cared for their young, but can we extrapolate that to all dinosaurs? Their ancestors, birds, generally do, but their cousins, reptiles, generally don't, though there are of course exceptions in both cases.

  17. They will have spent millions on this as it sells around the world and everything will reflect 'current thinking'. Indeed if you Google it is the current thinking that T-rex cared for their young, they extrapolated this info from similar species. It would make sense for adults to protect their offspring from predators for a while at least.

  18. I think the general rule of thumb from evolutionary perspective is that the fever offsprings an animal has, the better care they take of them. T-rex is theorized to had laid around 20 eggs at once. Compare that to modern animals and make of it what you will.

  19. Modern alligators lay 20-50 and look after the hatchlings for a year as a comparison.

  20. Elon just wanted to screw with the stock market to show how stupid it is.

  21. He loves the idea of the power of owning twitter, likes the idea he can shape it to whatever he wants, loves the idea he can manipulate the stock market and that his every shower thought ends up as head line news, but at the end of the day "Twitter has posted a net loss every year, except 2018 and 2019 when it made a profit of just over $1 billion." is a shit investment and that cold water is making him face reality and get off his power trip to back out of the deal.

  22. I cannot tell it if it is 90% of this or 20% of that or the other, but we both agree it seems like an insincere bid as he is asking for details after the bid and not before.

  23. What a sign of the times it is that I clicked this link to see if, indeed, the world will soon be starving, presumably violently competing for food, and am met with a subscription paywall.

  24. I don't say this often, but this is a must-see from Russian TV.

  25. Wonderfully eloquent. He brought that quote about morale from Lenin in like a Goddamn missile.

  26. Stay super relaxed. The nagging should be easing now. I had a weird fake 'must have a cigarette' feeling out of the blue in a number of months after I first quit: I sort of worked myself up into it, and then worked my way out of it, but it is one to watch out for.

  27. Do not trust Arrow, the official Bristol airport partner. I had a taxi booked for 4am last month. It turned up 30 mins early and the driver didn't even knock the door, I found out afterwards from the CCTV he drove off at 3.40am.

  28. It does seem to be some variety of either glue or anti-corrosion, now I just need to know WHAT it is so I can account for it.

  29. The dye is probably aniline, which is all round not great health wise but it will be bound up with the vinyl and it won't constitute a health hazard in my opinion. It is probably magenta, Pararosaniline, without a heavy metal component. It looks like an irritant but nothing more. One or maybe more aniline dyes contain heavy metals but not this one by the looks of things.

  30. I would give myself less than 50% chance of survival if it decided to give me a hug of death.

  31. Submission statement: North Korea was already experiencing food shortages back in 2019 pre-pandemic. They've since cut off trade with their main supporter China, and the economy has tanked. With this seemingly mega-outbreak, I can't help but imagine people will be locked inside their homes starving to death and the economy will all but collapse. Could it bring the end of the Kim dynasty?

  32. The family have spent decades in power. The people are basically scared of the regime and leaders, rightfully so, the concentration camps are terrible and even the elites can be executed. So I don't think anything will happen unfortunately.

  33. Excess immigration for decades has led to this awful and desperate situation but the BBC refuses to mention it for some reason.

  34. Something tells me that part of this coup was related to the dead oligarchs. Either Putin taking them out to prevent a coup, or others taking them out to create a power vacuum when it inevitably happens so a friendly gov can be put in.

  35. Asking 'who should be in power whilst Putin is ill, or if Putin dies' is a very good way for the inner circle to start the ball rolling for his replacement.

  36. The Ukrainian intelligence minister said the tide would turn in mid August and it would be over by the end of the year, so some way to go in this.

  37. Iceland has no standing military. Permanent bases nor nuclear warheads are not allowed on its territory. And yet they are in NATO. How did this even happen? Sweden and Finland better be shoo-ins, and Ukraine given serious consideration.

  38. If Russia took Iceland which they could actually achieve very easily, it would be a powerful military asset for servicing boats, hosting missiles and so forth.

  39. Because if you say anything against or negative about Israel, you get branded an anti-Semite. If you're a politician, you get smeared, so they won't.

  40. Anyone can specifically criticise Israeli policies without any problems at all in the EU. The real problem here is that the US supports Israel: "America's aircraft carrier in the Middle East". If it could let go of that policy, meaningful sanctions could be implemented.

  41. So with nearly 3 months that have gone by since the invasion started, how surprised are you with what has transpired during this invasion?

  42. I read reports that Russia did not have the personnel to hold Ukraine at the outset of the conflict so my prediction was that it was going to be a mess, which it has been by and large.

  43. From Ukrainian Intelligence, via Sky news confirmed by GUR.

  44. That's such a great post, with a lot of positives in it. I wonder if people around him will see a cancer operation on Putin as the starting gun for a coup? I think it will be just more of the same sort of people in charge, but at least they might see the sense in retreating from Ukraine in exchange for a normalised economic situation.

  45. Spending the past two books introducing a ton of new characters rather than moving forward the plots of established characters was a massive mistake

  46. Oh don't worry, I am sure there is a neat way of tying up 30 characters spread across a dozen countries. /s

  47. I will believe it when I see it. Unless he has lost support of the security forces...

  48. I guess the idea is that as Putin becomes incapacitated with illness that another will naturally start taking the reins in his place and becomes the de facto leader.

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