Ukraine Discussion/Question Thread - 11/27/22+

  1. It's interesting to see a lot of the Ukraine-Russia combat footage lately is of trench warfare. The trenches look pretty extensive too. I'm assuming they back ho them and reinforce with timber....who did most of the trench digging tho? the Ukrainians or the Russians?

  2. Rumors are that Russia said "ok fuck this NP, exploding it isn't fun anymore. Hey Ukraine you want to get this NP back? Hmm... Promise us that oil will go in oil-pipes unchallenged, yeah this sounds good"

  3. This interesting Washington Post article about drone usage in Ukraine War discusses a previously unreported attack and includes a bit about training, including how operators practice grenade drops with both inert munitions and improvised ones (Coke bottles filled with sand):

  4. No army is perfect and it's good that reporters are shining lights into the corruption in their army. Hopefully the top grass in Ukraine will take this seriously and fix this issue. They shouldn't sweep this under the rug, that's what Russia loves to do, and Ukraine leadership needs to show that they are different.

  5. Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Ukraine and its government are extremely corrupt the whole way through. Next few years are going to be fun for Europe, with all the criminals getting their hands on military-grade weaponry.

  6. Not really. Whenever they get a new AD system and a video comes out of a cruise missile shootdown, Ukranian MoD comes out and says it was by that weapons system. Whether that is really the case or just marketing is impossible to tell.

  7. I've noticed we haven't had any HIMARS videos in a while. Is Ukraine running low? Or have they just not had very good targets? I know Russia moved their ammo depots way back

  8. Damn, two years for a NASAMS? How long did it take the US to build a fleet carrier in WW2? I am aware the difference in time, place and what the material demands are, but it does seem like a long, long time if they ever were needed in greater numbers to replace losses.

  9. Can anyone explain to me how OPSEC works? How does Ukraine control what the world can and cannot see? I saw a lot of money being pledged by the west for cyber security is this where it went?

  10. The "Special Military Operation" is going so well, you are not only thrown into a gulag for calling it a war, but also for talking about it at all now:

  11. They technically declared (partial, messy but still) martial law and there are technically no elections while it's in place.

  12. Wouldn't surprise me if they fully drop the facade of democracy this year. You just know there are a team of scientists in some underground lab under the Urals attempting to download Putin's brain into a Metal Gear.

  13. I think all western nations are going to budget this in the sense of it being a public commitment that they're in this for the long haul.

  14. Why Bahkmut? I've been looking at the map and reading about the place and here is nothing there that seems important enough for Russia to keep sending fighters there.

  15. The Russians need to get through it to get to important stuff, and Ukraine would rather push elsewhere, leading it to not have an overwhelming amount of defense.

  16. By what I seen if you get the city you get your artillery in range of some railroads. Ukraine will have to resupply their troops s further from the front.

  17. Apparently the US has estimated that around 40k Ukrainian civilians have died in this war. This was from the press report done Mark Milley. Damn, the way it’s going this war is going to have the most casualties out of all of the post-Soviet conflicts, even more than in the Tajikistan civil war.

  18. They took down the other conflicts thread so I guess I'll ask here, what the hell is going on in Spain? Are the explosives from internal or external threats? Sorry if this isn't the appropriate place to ask

  19. 60 min is fantastic program. They have 10 cameras in the studio, so of course it jumps to another angle every 6 seconds. High quality comedy show (for "corrupted West"), sadly some people take this seriously (Russians, also they force prisoners to watch this)

  20. Lol @ that last bit, basically saying we’re all gonna be war criminals after this so might as well double down and force them into a ceasefire. Clowns.

  21. It would be nice if Ukraine had ATACMS so that they could target behind Russia's frontlines, but it seems the US has assessed that it is not necessary for now and it could be an escalation. It'll be interesting if the front lines eventually do open again for Ukraine, and Mariupol and Berdyansk finally fall within the GMLRS range.

  22. From what I understand, and by no means an expert so correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe they have weaponry that can target all occupied territory, I know the US has been hesitant to give them ammo any further

  23. Agree, I’ll be curious to see if the Boeing proposal for GLSDB’s manifests into anything serious. I will say they are at a serious disadvantage when it comes to range and it would be nice if they could actually strike the launch sights bombing their infrastructure. Based on the understanding that Russia are attacking these locations to artificially create a humanitarian catastrophe I don’t see longer range weapons as escalatory at all - purely humanitarian aid.

  24. "If not for the Iran and N.Korea supply of arms and “volunteers”, this war would have been over in favor of Ukraine a long time ago."

  25. My brother in Christ, if the Ukrainian army is obliterated then how the everliving fuck is russian army retreating from Kharkiv oblast and Kherson? And I don't even want to comment on the rest of the bullshit you've written.

  26. I’m sure the big wigs are smarter than I am, but I just don’t understand why we have not sent more airburst time/variable time fuzes for the 155mm and heavy mortar munitions we’ve sent over there.

  27. Airburst is useless against dug in enemies, especially against concrete (urban targets). Its useless against even basic trenches after the first shell when everyone already ran into cover. And this war has become a trench warfare, especially now in the East.

  28. From data I posted somewhere down thread, the Ukrainians are using 4K to 7K artillery rounds a day. Is it possibly due to cost or no?

  29. It's simple. Russia is happy to send men to die and Ukraine is accepting this deal, even when it means some loses for Ukraine.

  30. Bakhmut is a meatgrinder. Which sides losses are untenable? Can Russia just keep sending men and overwhelm Ukraine?

  31. For now, yes, they can and will. Their losses are higher, they're attacking. Overall, the city doesn't have strategic im[portance, so Ukraine does basically nothing more than needed to hold the ground there and let ru and wagner kill themselves against the defense positions

  32. Nah, Musk is too bad at doing things. If he would do so, then for sure FBI would know it, Musk is way too incompetent to hide it. FBI would be way too happy to lock him in and EVERY investor would thank FBI for this job.

  33. StarLink is Musk’s main plan to finance his Starship and Mars plan, there is nothing Russia could offer to have him shut it down.

  34. Maybe Musk saw a bunch of "useless" microservices running and decided to kill them and fire the engineers who made them, and is now running around in panic begging them to come back and fix the mess he made.

  35. An insight from SkyNews on why wagner is trying to take Bakhmut confirms what I wrote some time ago - the city is not of much military importance, it is attacked so fiercely for political reasons

  36. I've heard from people covering the war that Wagner more then likely has it in their contract they get paid a large bonus if they take the city

  37. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

  38. I honestly think the size of the Ukrainian army and their deep pool of former soviet armour and vehicles helped them immensely with absorbing the initial Russian assault.

  39. This video was released early on in the war, and tried to answer that question by looking at satellite photos of the tank storage facilities.

  40. A video that tried to estimate the battle ready tank fleet by looking at existing satelite footage said they have a maximum of 3,500. But we cant forget that they also got some from Belarus, capture a few from Ukraine, and repair and upgrade continuesly the ones they have in worse condition in their storages.

  41. They have thousands more in reserve. The reserve tanks are in various states and are not all usable, but it does provide Russia with a pool of vehicles they can work on to bring to the battlefields. It's almost always easier to restore an old tank than it is to produce a new one.

  42. "90% of drones Ukraine deployed Feb-July were destroyed. Average life expectancy of fixed-wing drone was six flights; that of a quadcopter a paltry three."

  43. Well that was a mess lol. I could be wrong but personally I think the statement was inaccurate. I guess we'll see it in the frontline in the coming months.

  44. It won't influence UA support, because how it would do so? People in power should know those estimates (at least their armies/MOD). Civilian fundraising would stop only when UA do something stupid (and UA can do it i.e. scum Melnyk), but I wouldn't count losses in this category

  45. Why would support for Ukraine change based on a badly worded casualty statement? No one doubts Ukraine is taking losses, but scope and scale are TBD.

  46. "with a MiG-29 fighter escort." is that necessary? are there any dogfights happening? If not: wouldn't more planes catch more attention from air defence?

  47. I'm only doing this because it will get quoted a million times by Russian propaganda news anyway and this shows the actual original before some crazy conspiracy theories start sprawling.

  48. If you take her number of 20k civilians killed and compare it to any other report on civilian casualties (killed or wounded), which are more transparent, you will see that they are pretty close. So in her case "killed" = casualties, and "officers" is obviously soldiers since she talks about the loss of life, and the life of a soldier and officer should be valued the same in this context.

  49. Just a gaff, a verbal mistake. People do it all the time. It’s important to understand that political leaders only know what they’re told, which isn’t always everything the military leaders of other countries know. Plus, they’re not experts on terminologies, slang, acronyms, common stats of weapons, etc.. so it’s easy for them to make little mistakes while publicly speaking. i.e. they’re just talking and do not have time to think about what they’re about to say.

  50. Chechnya already provided hugely disproportionate numbers of men willingly + the last thing Putin wants is to piss them off and have another uprising on his hands. It's also debatable how much control Rus gov really has over Chechnya without General TikTok's pre-approval.

  51. Kadyrov feels like Chechnya has already committed more than enough men to the war. They took some decent losses in the first few months, and now I think he just wants to see his soldiers be in the role of defensive troops that are the second line of defense. He’s one of the first people to be critical of Putin when things go wrong even though he’s bat shit crazy

  52. I must say, I am relieved about this. Seems to me a large section of the Republican base is against any form of support for Ukraine let alone an additional 40B of it.

  53. Does anyone think that apparent high level Russian prisoners and mob affiliated guys outing Prigozhin as a "Rooster" and threatening people who join wagner will have any affects in Russia internally?

  54. Anyone know what happened to russian miliblogger Romanov_92? I can't understand his last telegram message (bad translation) from 6 days ago but it seems like he's been shut down? If any russian speaker could give a short translation that would be awesome

  55. He wrote that he had been warned if he criticised the defence ministry much, he would be in trouble.

  56. Speaking of which, what happened to the red backpack DPR guy? Hasn’t see him for like two months. Is he dead?

  57. Would be nice to get... I have a question though. I understand why US does not want to give their newer AA systems, they need them as well and whole Europe too. But why they don't want to sent some good amount of older systems, which stay in depos and probably won't be used by US anyways? It's a defensive weapons, so no escalation possible as well.

  58. 28 years ago, 29th November 1994, president of Russian Federation Boris Yeltsin had issued an ultimatum to "warring factions" in Chechnya, demanding they lay down their arms, under a threat of direct military intervention.

  59. Perhaps there wouldn't be so many of those if Russia focused on its own country's issues instead of invading and bullying its neighbours

  60. I get the optics of it but from a perspective of what’ll bring tangible results to the battlefield I don’t see how new aircraft, reaper drones etc. will be beneficial. The skies in Ukraine remain heavily contested, the footage we see is often blind firing rockets from planes/helicopters close to the frontline before circling back. The footage we do see of aircraft operating over the frontlines is usually a scenario where it’s being shot down. Unless frequent and sophisticated use of HARMS become common place I don’t see what difference newer jets will make. All that aside this war is primarily being dictated by rockets/artillery - if the west want tangible results on the battlefield they should look at longer range rocket systems (yes including the ATACMS buzz word). HIMAR’s almost immediately produced value and not a single one has been destroyed - logical solutions like this are the answer, not fancy planes that risk being shot down. If someone believes I’m wrong in this assessment do respond because I’m happy to learn more.

  61. Speaking of wartranslated, I found this translated interview very enlightening, especially regarding the population of Donbas, the mood in the Ukrainian Army, and the contrast between life at the front lines and in the major cities to the West.

  62. Does anyone else find it weird that we haven’t seen any wreckage or half blown-up leftovers of Phoenix Ghost drones from Russian propaganda footage?

  63. If I were to hazard a guess, it's that since they're made by the same company, it's likely that the Phoenix Ghost is a switchblade that's been modified to meet UAF specs. The Russians probably can't distinguish between the two because they use the same parts.

  64. Here is my post from earlier, unusual post of drone recording directly over an artillery strike, if anyone is interested

  65. They need a larger ammo supply though. These systems have the ability to reload in 4-5 minutes (HIMARS) and 8-9 minutes (M270).

  66. This is basically an M270, same as the MARS 2 etc. So interoperable with GMLRS pods. At least I assume France kept them up-to date to operate GMLRS.

  67. Pretty big for sure - their value has been extremely well demonstrated, and they'll play a big part in future interdiction for counteroffensives

  68. Ukraine used a GMLRS rocket last night to hit a sleeping place of russian soldiers. It hit at the angle 90°, penetrated five floors but unfortunately didn't explode. Here are some photos:

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