The Case to End Prevent Defense

  1. You make a compelling argument. You could also add to your list of possible outcomes for an "Obvious Passing Situation", that the likelihood of an offensive holding penalty increases by nearly 27%, which is also "not good" for the offense.

  2. I mean you can also pull a Bowles and not call any form of prevent defense then have Cooper Kupp get a giant completion to lose the game

  3. That’s also an instance of a team not playing what got them there. With all the fumbles and random shittiness, I imagine Bowles smelled blood in the water. If he could pressure Stafford he could force another mistake. The Rams had been unraveling. So he calls a zero blitz. Not at all the kind of normal, consistent defense that had shut down the Rams O all 4th quarter. Coaches overthink things at the end of games

  4. As a Bucs fan, I’ll take that loss twice on Sundays as opposed to that shit the bills pulled just a few hours later. Bucs went down swinging haymakers.

  5. I don't know if NFL records moments that teams go into 'Prevent'. But I would love to see a success vs. failure rate for Prevent defenses. It seems at least 60 percent of the time it fails every time.

  6. In all seriousness is succeeds way more then it fails, which is why teams end up consistently employing it. It’s just a very easy cop out for fans because understanding why it’s run and what the objective is to running it requires a higher level of understanding of situational football.

  7. You can remove the second goal under squib kick since the clock doesn't start until the ball is touched.

  8. Thanks for saying this. The receiving team can immediately down the ball when you do get it, not taking any time on the clock as well.

  9. You are correct, upon review I originally had it written, "Force a return, Force time off the clock, and keep em out of the end zone," But I got cute and wanted a list for comedy purposes hence the bouncing, should have been more clear.

  10. Very nice argument. Much better than mine. Which is, I think the prevent is just stupid and you’ve been playing decent defense all game, why change it now.

  11. We’ll their offense will change based on the game. Offense coordinators change what plays they call depending on if they’re up or down in the game. Your defense needs to adjust to counter that. I think it’s a little more dependent on the skills each team has available to them than op is giving credit to.

  12. Prevent defense is great at one thing: making the other team waste a lot more clock to score. In 1 possession games, prevent defense is victory suicide, but outside of that it has a role.

  13. There's one simple question a DC can ask themselves when deciding whether they should call a prevent defense. Is a 20 yard completion in bounds good for the defense? If yes, call prevent, otherwise absolutely not.

  14. I'd like to see some evidence instead of your generalist arguments. No numbers trying to prove your point?

  15. It’s going to be hard. Special teams and weird defense schemes don’t really have special statistics. Purely anecdotallly, it makes more sense to play the way you have been playing the whole game rather than rely on a chance possibility in a formation you barely practice with in a situation that has a high degree of catastrophic failure. A Hail Mary and a lucky interception/fumble is a way better way of stacking the odds than a squib kick. At least to me.

  16. The correct option (especially when the offense is far enough away that a ton of arm strength is needed) is blitzing. We’ve seen the three times it didn’t work (Rodgers twice vs Arizona, Murray vs Bills and Carr vs Jets) but all except the Carr one required high level catches. I’d much rather force the QB into a potentially off target, off balance throw that might not get there and live with the results, rather than someone like Richard Rodgers simply out jumping or leveraging the defense

  17. It’s possible you wrote a good post, but I stopped reading when you said bouncing a squib kick takes time off the clock. And for that reason, I’m out!

  18. I know fantasy talk is not really allowed here but god damn do watching prevent defenses really enrage me

  19. I have a belief that the only place extremely soft zone coverage like prevent defense makes sense isn't at the end of the game. It's the entire rest of the game if your defense is just so overmatched that the offense is guaranteed to march on you all day. In that situation the occasional big play alone won't kill you, but the overall effect of hopefully slowing several drives keeps the difference in score from getting beyond a touchdown or two. Plus in those long drives, you hope they fuck up once in a while. This isn't a good strategy for good teams mind you, but a strategy for bad to mediocre defenses to punch above their weight against high powered offenses and stay in games they might otherwise get blown out in. Basically trying to turn a 35-14 rout into a 21-14 close game you have a chance to win near the end.

  20. That was basically the strategy for the late 2000s early 2010s patriots defenses. Obviously the defense was helped a ton by having historically good offenses but you’re basically describing those old “bend but don’t break” defenses

  21. Biggest argument against it that I never hear is that defenses are just better at dime than prevent because they practice and play it more. Bringing out the niche defense when all you need is consistency leads to giving up big plays.

  22. I absolutely loved this and agree with you 100%. Nothing having a lead all game and then HANGING ON FOR DEAR LIFE in the final 2 minutes just to lose the lead with like 35 seconds left. It's enough to break my mind in half and turn me into an unable to form real words rage monster. Ban it!

  23. Okay, what if your team is the Yampa Ray Ruccaneers and you are about to enter overtime with the one and only Yom ....Rrady? Do you decide to leave absolutely noone in the backfield when a deep pass is literally the ONLY way the other team can win?

  24. Wouldn't a fumble be considered as a 5th option making 5 potential things that could happen and not just 4? Or you could classify them both as a turnover and list both to keep it to 4 options.

  25. Technically yes, but given the fumble happens after the catch or likely as a result of a sack I felt fine leaving it off the list (i.e. its a second level kind of thing, unless it happens on the handoff, fuck a lot can go wrong in football)

  26. Nobody today plays "prevent", at least not what prevent actually was in the 90s. Soft coverage up 17 points with 5 minutes to play is not prevent

  27. I've noticed that half the time when ppl are think a team is calling prevent defense it's actually quarters coverage. Modern nfl teams rarely call prevent defense.

  28. I’d be curious to see the amount of squib kicks vs “sky” kicks at the ends of the half ever since the kickoff blocking rules changed.

  29. The prevent defense is a fucking dogshit scam the nfl forces coaches to use to keep games “closer” as long as possible for viewership. There is no other option.

  30. The saints have lost so many games over the last ten years paying prevent at the end of halves or games

  31. I think the only time a prevent defense is worth it is when there’s only enough time for one more play. At that point they’re most likely just gonna heave it downfield in a situation where prevent D would even be used. Also, I’m sure someone has said it, but the clock doesn’t start running on kickoffs until the returning team touches the ball. Which really is only a 2-3 second difference on a squib kick. Squib kicking is still preferable though because it does take time from the clock and the ball will usually not go to a fast skill returner (if your kicker gets it to the right area) so the risk of a big return/return TD is small. Even if they do get a decent return, it’s worth the extra yardage to run some time off the clock. Honestly though, if you’re worried about getting beat deep in this situation, just play a cover 3 or 4 with your DBs pushed back an extra 5 yards or so more than usual.

  32. As a Vikings Fan, last year prevent defense was an absolute killer. We allowed like 40% of all point scores against us in the final two minutes of both halves. We were up by a touchdown or more in 15/17 games but won only 8/9. Our prevent defense prevented us from winning.

  33. It's called the prevent defense because it prevents the defense employing it from winning lol. Seriously though, i can't stand when a team uses the prevent defense when they are only up a possession or two...

  34. NFL coaches are super cowardly because they make their teams boringly and cowardly huddle on offense and waste time. The NFL needs more coaches like Chip Kelly.

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