Gutierrez's legal strategy was sound and she knew Asia's letters were poison to the defense

  1. Yep. The piece that was missing in my original analysis was exactly when and why Adnan finally chose to disclose the letters to Gutierrez. A more complete record of the case and visitor logs are now available. The Asia letters were not ripe until July 8, 1999 when the state finally disclosed their theory that HML was killed shortly after school. CG met with Adnan on July 10, saying, "ok, now that we have a timeline, let's see if we can establish an alibi." Had Adnan simply stated that he thinks Asia might have seen him in the library and that CG should interview her, he would have been home free. Instead the stupid douche pulls out his two letters dated early March that he's been waiting to use for the past 4 months prompting CG to ask, "are you out of your f*cking mind?" She is so pissed that she refuses to meet with him, sending her underlings in her stead and sitting down with Adnan only when she absolutely has to (once in September before the trial and a last time in March before the appeal).

  2. I think this whole line of thought weighs in favor of the state’s theory being wrong, with respect to time and circumstances at the very least.

  3. I think it’s also important to point out that Adnan’s first known alibi, fixing Dion’s car, was for 3:00-3:30, not the time just after school.

  4. I fixated on the Asia letters because they were among the few pieces of evidence available at the time the podcast originally aired. I was not aware of the alibi involving Dion's car, but it looks like Adnan discussed it with his lawyer on March 12, but Flohr does not characterize it in his notes as a potential alibi. You are probably right though that this is another example of Adnan trying to lay the foundation for an alibi based on his knowledge of the crime by providing info of a timeline that his defense did not yet know was relevant.

  5. oh interesting! So Adnan covered 2:15 - 3:00 w/ the Asia alibi and 3:00 - 3:30 w/ the Dion alibi. Then he showed up and made sure he was seen at track practice, and showed up to Kristy's later in the night?

  6. Further, Asia writes in her book about how Adnan's family was grateful when she allegedly met with them on March 1, 1999 because she could help fill in some of his time for Jan 13. Her March 2 letter refers to Adnan's brother telling her that he will have Adnan give her a call purportedly to discuss her supposedly exculpatory info. Thus, according to Asia, Adnan's family knew how she could help on March 1, 1999, yet about a year later Adnan's parents send a letter to CG begging her to cite Asia as a witness because she had "newly discovered" information. If Asia's story is true, not only did Adnan sit on this exculpatory info, but his family did as well. That makes zero sense, especially in view of their March 2000 letter to CG.

  7. Frankly? Adnan's reaction to SK telling him she spoke to Asia is very interesting. At first he doesn't know what SK is going to say. "Asia told me she wrote those letters because you asked her to" is probably what he was thinking. Keep in mind, it's been 15 years. Once he learns from SK that Asia is sticking to her story he becomes relieved and opens up like he knew it all along.

  8. Yes! A lot of Adnan's reactions to things Sarah says are off. Adnan seems to me like a very skilled manipulator, but with incomplete information even the best manipulator will make errors and say things that just don't ring true to attuned ears.

  9. Yup. Going back and listening to Adnan’s hesitation in the podcast without the bias that prompted SK to investigate and with a more complete perspective of Asia’s letters is telling. So is Asia’s complete cluelessness when SK finds her.

  10. I agree. And a smaller thing I have is when retelling his day Adnan doesn't say, "I went to the library, talked with Asia and then hung out until later until track" He just says something else. But according to his testimony he vividly remembers Asia, but no mention of her during that day.

  11. I think this is brilliant. Well done. My only question now is why? Why would Asia, who isn't even friends with Adnan, agree to be his alibi, especially when she knows it's bullshit? Maybe I'm missing something but wouldn't she clearly realize that if this random acquaintance of hers is begging her to provide him an alibi for a murder, he prrrrrrrobably committed that murder?

  12. Thanks, I appreciate your taking the time to read this! Others have asked me to read their manifestos and while many are very good, it can be a slog and I feel bad for putting others through it. At any rate, this was actually the dry run, the final analysis, in case you haven't seen it, is

  13. This was such an amazing write up. 3 years later and I read every last word. Fucking beautiful. Thank you for this, it has solidified my belief AS is guilty

  14. One question I have for you is - in order to really attack Jay's version of events CG would need Adnan to refute them, no? I mean there's no way CG can, for example, say to Jay, 'you're lying about the sequence of events'? She can't point out to specifics and say he's lying. Because how would she know unless Adnan told her? If she so much as implied Jay's lying about the specifics it would be a tacit admittance of Adnan's involvement. She can go after his credibility due to the inconsistent statements he gave, yes. That's the only card she had. The state had evidence that puts them together during the day and at the burial site. It's a forgone conclusion that they were together. She can't get around that. Her cross didn't put a dent in this testimony imo. Maybe that is exactly what you're saying and I'm reading it wrong.

  15. CG doesn't necessarily need info from Adnan to attack Jay's testimony. From what I recall, CG attacked Jay's prior inconsistent statements to the cops to challenge his credibility, but deliberately avoided attacking his final version to keep the state from nullifying his deal and going after him. If she wanted to attack Jay's story, she could have gone after inconsistencies between his statements and the cell tower pings, but using the cell tower info against Jay would likely backfire because by doing so, 1) Jay would be exposed to prosecution as mentioned above and 2) CG would basically be validating the prosecution's evidence, which would be more harmful for other parts of the timeline. She could have used the testimony of other witnesses who saw Jay and Adnan together on Jan 13 to poke holes in his story as well, but again, that would expose Jay to prosecution, which would increase the likelihood of Adnan's conviction.

  16. Yeah, I know. Thankfully, someone went through the trouble of compiling a comprehensive series of timelines with links to the sources (link to one of the series is included at the beginning of my original post). It is a fantastic one stop shop to factcheck and goes way beyond the info included in my post. It will save you tons of time and I encourage you to check it out.

  17. You just wrote around 6,900 words on the ins and outs Christina Gutierrez may have gone through in rationalising some kind of strategy for why Asia may have been no use as an alibi.

  18. Actually, CG’s didn’t need a strategy for dealing with Asia. She knew immediately that Asia’s alibi was bogus and had to adjust her overall strategy because Asia proved to CG that Adnan was involved in the murder. Understanding how CG knew that takes some explaining although I admit it coulda been done with fewer words.

  19. Wow. This and your other post about Asia's alibi are so thorough. It's long, but an easy read, and I hope people get a chance to read both because they lay out some pretty indisputable contradictions, even if some of it is speculation (not at all far fetched IMO). I almost wish this would be pinned to the top of the subreddit. Thanks for taking the time to do this!

  20. Thanks, I appreciate your taking the time to read the posts. As you may have noted, the Asia alibi perspective was revised between this post and the subsequent one. This one provides a stronger nexus between Adnan being involved in Hae’s murder based on his knowing when Hae was killed and whatJay would say. The later one that focuses on Asia provides a stronger argument that the alibi was fabricated. I think the later one is closer to how things went down, but that doesn’t affect the perspective on Gutierrez’s strategy. One can argue that Adnan trying to fake an alibi doesn’t necessarily mean he was involved in the murder. Then again, being deliberately vague about his recollection on Jan 13 to hedge so he could make up a story is not what an innocent person would do. CG may not have been as certain about Adnan’s involvement in the murder, but his actions with regard to Asia certainly didn’t make her think he was innocent. Anyway, I appreciate your kind words. 🙂

  21. Fantastic write up. Like some others, I think that CG would have a pretty good idea that she needed to alibi from end of school 2:15 pm to the end of the day, or at least to 8:00 pm/mosque time. Gutierrez probably didn't see the letters until /July and as clearly, the 2nd letter is an offer to lie, she sent the PI out to interview Asia but Asia gave him the dodge the way she did Brown's PI.

  22. I don't think he showed her the letters. There were at least four natural points where they would have been mentioned but weren't: his letter to CG with respect to Asia (but no mention of letters), the Rabia-composed parents' letter to CG with respect to Asia (but no mention of letters), the Rabia-composed parents' letter to Judge Heard (and cc'd to others) complaining about CG but not mentioning Asia or any letters, and his testimony about Dorsey who he says he told about Asia but doesn't mention telling him about the letters.

  23. Thanks! Before the state's July 8, 1999 disclosure, the defense was not as focused on establishing Adnan's whereabouts immediately after school. Is it known that CG sent a PI to interview Asia? I thought the Asia letters were so ridiculous given their alleged dates, content and when Adnan finally chose to reveal them (supposedly 4+ months after receiving them) right after the state's disclosure of HML's time of death that CG would do everything possible to distance herself from them and avoid creating a record.

  24. I think, seriously, that you have a future in True Crime. You should seriously consider it if you are not already seriously pursuing a viable career.

  25. I know, I hear you. My problem is that this kid sat in jail for 15 years before his story became a thing with the podcast. For many of us, because of the podcast, this case feels fresh like this all just happened. I keep going back to the fact that this happened in 1999 when a 17 year old kid committed a terrible crime. I don’t like the arguments that will get him a new trial, I don’t like how charlatans like Rabia and Asia hitched their wagons to this story and are profiting from their bullshit narrative, I don’t like how they waited until after Gutierrez died to drag her name through the mud. But Adnan spent the past 2 decades in jail. He was a manipulative piece of shit, but he didn’t get away with it. Given his age at the time, it may not be the greatest injustice to let him out, but his release should be conditional on admitting his guilt and apologizing to Hae’s family. I know that if he goes free that this will never happen. I know that it won’t bring Hae back to her family. It’s bad enough that they had to relive this ordeal, but I can’t imagine how difficult this must have been for them to witness the undeserved outpouring of support for her killer. Serial trivialized Hae’s death and a sincere apology from Adnan is the least that her family deserves. That said, I don’t think it would be unjust for a murderer who committed his crime when he was 17 to get paroled (or released for time served following a guilty plea) after twenty years.

  26. I just want to understand the timing. Adnan is thinking that he needs an alibi for that day because he worries he might get arrested soon. So he finds Asia at school and says, can you help me if I get arrested? He tells her please get things like no visitors, my inmate number, number of visitors, and do that within two days?

  27. I can’t speak to the details of how the first letter was orchestrated, but I’ve been operating under the assumption that it was concocted before March 1, 1999. Adnan knew the cops were on to him at least as early as Feb 16 when he spoke with Yasser which likely sparked the need for an alibi that was letter #1. It’s possible that the first letter was written after the fact, but that did not make much sense to back date it. The second letter with the inmate number and address details was likely concocted after his arrest. The police interview notes of Ja’uan indicate that Adnan provided instructions to Asia some time in April to send him a typed letter. Unless Adnan can show a postmarked envelope for the second letter, it is highly unlikely that it was sent on March 2. If you go back and read the March 2 letter, Asia mentions that the story has died down at school. He was arrested on Sunday. Her first letter is dated Monday. Second letter is dated Tuesday and the murder of on student and arrest of another is already old news?

  28. Wow, didn’t think anyone still bothered reading this one. Thanks for taking the time. This one was actually a warm up to the link below that brings it home and includes links to all the Bilal bs alluded to in the comments to the more recent posts.

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