Leaving Baltimore - Part 2

  1. I like a lot of this, especially the explanation for the Yaser call. Adnan needs to explain his absence from prayers. The last thing he wants is for people to think he has gone missing at the same time Hae has already gone missing. Actually, the last thing he wants is people looking for him while he's burying a body and ditching a car.

  2. Thanks for your thoughts and taking the time to read the posts. I think the possibility of Bilal’s involvement was somewhere between accomplice and mastermind. I lean more toward mastermind because I think Adnan lacked the sophistication to pull this off on his own. But as another person mentioned, the incentive for Bilal to participate in some way for no other reason than to have immeasurable leverage over his favorite victim may have been too much to pass up causing him to help Adnan carry out the plot from a distance.

  3. “This paranoia likely went into overdrive when Adnan saw that the number calling him was Hae’s! Adnan’s head was spinning (like the now proverbial prophy cup) at the incredibly short turnaround time between Hae being murdered and her almost instantly haunting him.”

  4. Back in 1999, could you see the incoming number if it was from a landline? In my country, it would just show as “incoming call”.

  5. Good questions. I should have said a bit more about Jay in the write up and will include the following if the word limit allows. In the original plan, Jay was only supposed to drive Adnan's car: follow Adnan to where they dumped Hae's car with her body inside and accompany him to Kristi's. I imagine Bilal's instruction on this was something like this: "Get someone to drive your car and pick you up where you dump Hae and her car. Use that black guy you buy pot from. Threaten to turn him in if he doesn't agree to help." Jay went along initially because all he had to do was drive Adnan's car. Then when things went to shit and Adnan panicked at Phase 5 and called the audible, the plan suddenly became something way more than what Jay signed up for. Going back and getting Hae's body, helping drag her body out of the car to the burial site, helping bury (or watching Adnan bury) the body all freaked Jay the fuck out. Based on Jen's account of when she came to pick up Jay, he was shaken. He let it drop right then that Hae was murdered. Had they stuck to the original plan and spared Jay having to help drag Hae's dead body out and bury it, he probably would have kept his mouth shut and said nothing to Jen that night. Being a craven piece of shit, Bilal was not going to allow himself to have any active role in Hae's murder. Aside from being enlisted to drive Adnan's car, Jay may have also been engaged to assist so that Bilal and Adnan could have a patsy to blame for Hae's murder if the cops got too close. Recall that just before Hae's body was found, Adnan made an appointment to finally speak with them after consulting with Bilal. The cops cancelled the meeting with Adnan after the body was found so Adnan didn't have .a chance to throw Jay under the bus. As to Adnan telling Bilal what happened, as mentioned in the OP, Adnan was under strict instructions to NOT call Bilal because Bilal didn't want to have any calls between himself and Adnan's new phone. Given that, it does seem strange and stupid for Bilal to have signed the cell phone contract two days earlier, but that also goes to the idea of Bilal being a CI and convincing himself that a cell phone is absolutely necessary for the operation. It's almost as though Bilal wasn't able to help himself like Yosemite Sam in this clip:

  6. Agree. There's no truth to any of it. My biggest issue is Adnan just no-showing for "leading prayers" at the mosque on the 13th, having to reschedule it for the 14th, and when Hae turns up dead, no one remembers that Adnan was an unexplained no-show, on the 13th.

  7. I remember this post of yours but I didn't give it a chance at the time and only skimmed it. Following last week's revelations, it appears now is the right time to review old theories and this one is incredibly apt and thorough. I'll take time to absorb it but just to pick up on one aspect:

  8. I agree that Adnan's silence about Bilal is a combination of mental trauma from being groomed and also that it wouldn't necessarily help him to tell the truth now.

  9. The antennae triggered was the "B" between points A and C. Adnan could have been passing through. It's not like the phone is triggering that antennae randomly. It's on the way from one to another.

  10. What are your thoughts re: new suspect revelations? Many of the people in this sub think Bilal's one the new suspects, I'm one of them.

  11. I just listened to TCO cover the Serial podcast and I had really been wrapped up in the holes in the stories between Adnan and Jay and I was really starting to lean towards a "Jay must have set Adnan up" because the story Serial and Rabia have presented really didn't make much sense. Like virtually nothing had been shared about Adnan's past and background.

  12. Thanks and you don’t need to qualify your comment. I appreciate when others read my stuff with a critical eye. You raise a good point on the timing. The way I’ve been thinking about it is this: on December 20, 1998 after Adnan was dumped and knew it was over, he was extremely distraught. His phone records indicate that he spoke with Bilal that day. He may have met with him privately too. I can see Bilal trying to comfort Adnan and Adnan telling Bilal how close he was to her and how he told her things about him that he never confided in anyone else. In my mind, this is when Adnan likely let it slip that Hae knew about Bilal. Yeah, it’s off the charts speculative, but that’s how it plays in my head. Before the break up, I did not see a reason why Adnan would mention it to Bilal.

  13. Good points. What you say is possible, I just think Adnan lacked the sophistication to come up with this plan on his own. And for Adnan from going to never having had a cell phone to one day later making the cell phone a central part of his plan--that smells like an idea borne from the cell phone king, Bilal. Getting the cell phone, telling Adnan how to compel Jay into helping (because he knew how to manipulate people and through his CI work knew the penalties Jay would be looking at for running drugs out of his grandma's house), setting up Adnan to lead prayers—all attributable to Bilal. Keep in mind, this is the same fucker who masterminded the Asia alibi plan from my earlier post. It does not seem like much of a stretch for him to be the brains behind this part of the plot as well.

  14. Thank you for these posts. Given the latest update, your explanation and theory holds up really well. It also answers some of the questions I've had over the years (mainly concerning Bilal), despite regularly engaging in team Adnan material (Undisclosed; the book; the HBO documentary). That Bilal even got a phone for Adnan was an initial major red flag, tbh. All of this just adds up, though. It also makes sense why many have been emotionally pulled into believing Adnan's innocence (of course, not everyone), often related to his own stance of innocence: because according to this theory, he must feel innocent to some extent as he himself was a victim and the whole murder was not orchestrated by him. Of course, we will never know for sure (we'll see what the next updates will be...) and we all want justice for Hae. I can't imagine what her family must be feeling.

  15. Came for the in-depth info on Bilal, thank you. Have to say it's pretty hard to take much of the speculative stuff you say seriously when you seem to go out of your way to show your bias every few sentences (whilst repeatedly ripping into Rabia for being biased).

  16. Debbie also said that she spent 7 hours on the phone with Don after Hae was murdered to "investigate" him. She continued investigating this person she supposedly suspected of murdering her friend by visiting him alone. I'm surprised that Debbie didn't steal Hae's car from the police impound lot because she felt that Hae wanted her to have it. Yeah, Debbie's credibility is not at all suspect. There are a lot of ex parte arguments Adnan's PR machine raised that make analysis of this case like an endless game of whack-a-mole. As to the lividity, I'll share my response to someone else who asked about that earlier today.

  17. This is compelling and interesting, and I only had time to give a quick read right now, but will give a closer look later. Thanks for taking the time; regardless of if this is potentially just some conjecture, you are a really great writer!

  18. I just want to say thank you for this. Whether this theory is entirely accurate or not, it's satisfying enough for me to finally escape the rabbit hole and leave Baltimore. I honestly can't believe all the time I invested in watching the documentary and listening to Serial and Undisclosed all while thinking Adnan is innocent. I really hope Rabia sees your posts.

  19. I have always had gigantic questions about several aspects of the case: why did Adnan enlist Jay's help, why is Adnan terrible at answering certain questions, what really was Adnan's motive, "that bitch is dead ... come get me... I'm at Best Buy".

  20. These are all very compelling arguments that I had not considered before. The dots connect. Thank you for writing it out.

  21. Thank you for your posts, they made very interesting reading and I learnt some details about the case I'd never known before (mainly in relation to the grand jury). I think there is a lot of this case that falls into the 'we'll likely never know category', for instance the exact dynamic between Adnan and Jay, and I think a lot of the subjects you cover fall into that area.

  22. Prayer is pretty straightforward. A 12-year-old could have led it. Certainly would not have required Adnan to visit Bilal in downtown Baltimore at midnight on a school night to prepare for the prayer. Preparing for murder the next day? More likely, in my opinion. To me, Bilal getting Adnan the cell phone a couple of days before the murder cuts both ways in terms of making it obvious that he's involved and being so obvious that he may not have been involved because no one in their right mind who would have carefully planned a murder would be so careless to involve themselves in that way. That's where Bilal being pre-programmed into believing that the plan could only be carried out with a cell phone comes into play, which still leaves me wondering why he would be so willing to take such a risk. But then I remember that Bilal is driven by compulsions that do not govern the actions of normal people...like: "hmmm...while my patient is knocked out, why don't I risk my freedom, career, reputation and life and use it as an opportunity to get off?" Basically, we cannot ascribe your average motivations to people like Bilal.

  23. Wasnt there always a theory that a third man was involved - it would make sense that it was Bilal. Do you think this is the man Jay was scared of? I think a lot of these assertions could be true. Adnan could be both victim and perpetrator. I dont think he was manipulated to kill hae but I think Bilal could be a co conspirator like jay.

  24. I don’t think Jay was scared of any man. He was shitting himself in late February because he didn’t know if Adnan already got to the cops first and threw Jay under the bus. He was sweating at his job because he didn’t know if the cops would be coming to take his statement after talking to Jen or to arrest him if Adnan got to them first.

  25. All of it. I’m letting It rest. May Hae Rest In Everlasting Peace. I’m ready to put Baltimore to rest and go on with my life.

  26. This is some good stuff you knew before anyone else I think this is pretty accurate just wow wow wow

  27. You seem to be big on supporting CG, but what about all of the other complaints that completely separate clients of hers had with her? And the fact that those were found to be significant to the point of restitution in a court of law?

  28. thank you for your depth of feeling here, SalmaanQ. we, humans, are - above all else - social beings … drawn, almost evolutionarily, to one another’s narratives. they shape us, help us grow - and, indeed, evolve. so, thank you for embodying what it means to be … human. there’s no shame in that.

  29. Thank you so much for this. I was here for you first post all that time ago. You knew these people. You have credibility. I agree with so much of this.

  30. Thanks for reading this and I’m glad you liked it. Please bear in mind that this was written for people like you who are interested in this case. It was NOT written for Adnan. If my analysis is accurate, I would not want to drop this on his head like an anvil. If he was being preyed upon by Bilal, it would be preferable that someone qualified in dealing with sexual abuse sit down and discuss it with him. Reading my words that were not intended for him might drive him to suicide and I don’t need that shit on my conscience.

  31. I haven’t read through all the comments yet but the tidbit about Adnan’s late night Jan 12th calls to Hae pinging off a tower near Bilal’s office is pretty intriguing. As is the bit about Adnan and Bilal’s frequent calls stopping after the murder and the potential explanation for the Yaser call. I am pretty much convinced that the Yaser call was some form of a “cover for me at the mosque” call.

  32. Everything you said can be true without Bilal being the mastermind. In fact him being the mastermind is kind of the only thing that is the biggest question mark. Murder is a deep line to cross to avoid your secret getting out …but for Adnan to have shared a deep secret with her and for her to not only know his history, have been thru it herself and to leave him and get with a new guy….a white guy….and is now engaging in sex with him while he probably couldn’t fulfill her is pretty deep and probable enough of a reason to kill her. Great great post man. Top notch digging. I’m scared of Bilal!!

  33. No doubt Adnan panicked, knowing he had confided his deepest, most shameful secret to someone (he now felt was) willing to betray him. In a sense, killing Hae was a nullification of not only her, but everything they had shared: he buried his confession (and on some level, the abuse itself) alongside Hae's body. If Bilal did assist in the murder planning, it further allowed Adnan to reframe his religious leader as helpful patriarch, even savior; to go back in time psychologically to a point before the abuse had taken place. Hae becomes the villain and her (imagined) betrayal stands in for Bilal's sexual abuse.

  34. Good point. I think the difference between Hae and Bilal's other victims was that he did not have control over Hae and she knew what the others knew about him but unlike his victims, he did not have the opportunity to groom her. She had no reason to protect him. Also, Bilal may have seen her as an impediment to his most coveted victim, Adnan.

  35. When/where do you suppose Adnan and Jay were supposed to hide Hae's body/car in the original plan? I have no clue concerning the where, but the when would have to be some time after prayers at the mosque. That night or some other day. So were they just going to leave her body in the trunk of her car in the park n' ride for a while? Were the going to leave it there indefinitely?

  36. Disposal of the body could have been handled subsequently and could have been days later. Frankly, that's not really relevant to my point. The point in the OP is to demonstrate that burying her at Leakin Park that day was NOT part of the original plan.

  37. Thanks. A lot of this is deductions/speculation based on the facts. Many in this group have a solid understanding of the details and I count on them to point out if any of my conclusions are based on incorrect info. I’ve spent way too much time reviewing the evidence, but there are some in this group that take it to another level.

  38. Yes. There are several issues, organized in comments at the top of the thread. While maybe there are true things like Bilal being arrested with a refugee, the conclusions drawn from that are entirely fan fiction.

  39. This is an interesting and creative post. I always thought he was involved in some capacity. There's just no proof.

  40. Hi. Thanks for reading. The identity of the tipster always seemed like a small point with regard to understanding what happened and why. At any rate, I looked at the tipster's info and it is actually consistent with the analysis. I added a new subsection to the post regarding the tipster. I do not think it was Bilal, but rather was likely one of the 20 boys in the youth group. Thanks!

  41. The Intercept should have mentioned that Bilal was repped by Cristina Gutierrez during his grand jury appearances.(Saad Chaudry was also repped by CG at the motion stage but by a different attorney during his grand jury testimony.)

  42. My reason for not providing a point-by-point rebuttal can be found in the edited part of this comment:

  43. Given our history of your falsely accusing me of stealing your ideas from the day that I started posting here, I know the place where your questions are coming from. No accusation that I copied it all from you and your buddy Seamus this time? No summarily dismissing my argument as delusional as you did in the past? I'm sorry it burns your ass that people find this interesting.

  44. Interesting theories, but being a child molester does not mean that one is a murderer, complicit in a murder, aiding and abetting a murder etc. Abusers often continue the grooming through gifts, etc.

  45. What you say is true, but in this case someone WAS murdered and the most morally bankrupt person in the vicinity with actual connections to the crime was Bilal.

  46. I don't doubt that i'm somewhere on the ADHD spectrum, but be thankful that I'm not on meds otherwise you'd be reading part 2 of 50.

  47. I believe the reason fo having the phone was 1) because Bilal was incapable of hatching a plot that didn’t involve one and 2) the plot, as originally conceived, required Adnan to be seen at a) track practice, b) Kristi’s house and c) the mosque. As indicated in the post, going to mosque on Jan 13 was scratched because Adnan called the audible when he panicked after the cops called him and he decided that he needed to bury the body immediately. The original plot was more time sensitive and needed to be carried out in a manner that would leave a very small widow where Adnan was not seen by anyone and it would be easy for him to argue that he could not have committed the murder: "when would I have had the time to do it?" I think Jay was lured in for the reasons he actually said where Adnan threatened to turn him in for selling drugs.

  48. I find a lot of this makes sense. Thank you for posting. Some of it is highly speculative but given Adnan's association with a rapist and pedophile I think there is definitely a link between Bilal and what happened. I also think this humanizes Adnan to an extent because the murderous intent may not have originated from him. He may have been manipulated into doing it by his abuser. Of course, that only mitigates it to an extent. He is still responsible for the act.

  49. I dont know much abt this. I just watched the doc on netflix and then skim reading this. this bilal is such a bad man, what rules him out in killing Hae himself. Then invovling adnan and jay to get rid of the body via shame and threats. If one plays into conspiracy theories....

  50. Thanks for a fresh set of eyes on a played out story. This was very interesting to read. I do wish you had cited your sources related to the grand jury, though. I don’t know how to separate fact from fan fiction on those points because I don’t have the sources.

  51. It was not that big an event. It was leading 20 boys in prayer. The importance was inflated by the defense to make it sound more substantial than it was.

  52. Are Adnan and Bilal in the same corrections system? I wonder if they have been in communication.

  53. Bravo. Not the most likely or believable in some parts, i.e. the CI element seems unnecessary and far fetched imho, but some parts are compelling, i.e. Syeds call pings from Bilals office on 1/12.

  54. Thanks. Admittedly, I rushed the CI section and need to sharpen the argument. It's more compelling than the shitty version I threw together.

  55. That antennae covers Adnan's work, and is on the way between the antennae before and after so could be a pass through. Also, no proof that the dental school was willing to give Bilal an office, while he was a student. And no proof Bilal was a graduate assistant.

  56. Thanks for reading. I didn’t lay out the Gutierrez section clearly enough and will need to revise it. I don’t think Bilal said anything to her to lead her to suspect that he was in any way involved in the case. Sure, he bought Adnan the phone, but that’s all she knew. She could not have known that Adnan was lurking near bilal’s office at the dental school the night before or that Bilal originally intended for Adnan to lead prayers on Jan 13. She did not know about Bilal’s predatory behavior. She did, however, suspect that there was something fishy going on during the grand jury proceedings when she told the attorney who was representing Adnan at the time to warn Shamim (Adnan’s mom) about seeing Bilal while he was testifying. She also likely knew that Bilal was involved in the plot to fabricate the Asia alibi, but thought she had control over the situation. She did not have any concrete proof or admission from Bilal or Adnan with which to go to the judge to raise a conflict of interest and request to be removed as counsel. Bilal’s main motivation in having her represent Adnan was that she would be precluded from investigating and raising an affirmative defense that Bilal was an accomplice and coerced/manipulated Adnan into committing the murder. At the time she agreed to represent Adnan, this was hardly conceivable. By the time she learned of Bilal’s predatory behavior, it was the 11th hour before trial and very unlikely that the judge would allow her to withdraw. I don’t think she acted unethically although she should have thought twice about agreeing to take Adnan as a client. But she was duped into representing Adnan by Bilal, a master manipulator: “we need the best representation Ms Gutierrez and that is you! Adnan’s only chance is if an excellent attorney like you represents him! The entire ISB community is prepared to pitch in and pay your legal fees!” All this fucker did was groom people.

  57. I hear through the grape vine he was banned from this stupid fucking sub. But if he was here he might say something like this....

  58. My reason for not providing a point-by-point rebuttal can be found in the edited part of this comment:

  59. I’m sorry but I can’t read all of this because it is mainly all SPECULATION. A more likely scenario in my mind is that Hae knew Bilal was an informant (probably through Adnan) and threatened to expose him (leaving him vulnerable to retaliation from everyone he informed on) so he killed her. He used Jay to assist him by threatening to turn him in as a drug dealer. This is the only scenario with motivations that make sense to me. Adnan did not have a real motivation to kill someone whom he loved but had broken up with him - THAT makes no logical sense and he especially had no motivation to include Jay in this crime he supposedly committed!

  60. Can’t tell if you’re being funny. The informant stuff that I suggest is pretty speculative too. It wasn’t critical to the analysis except to the link it to Bilal’s penchant for planning everything like a ridiculous sting operation. Lots of people gave me shit for that when I originally posted a few years ago. Of Bilal’s roles (child predator, spiritual abuser, rapist, fraudster, etc.), it is possible that he was an informant based on my analysis, but it’s not 100%. If you read the subsequent posts (if you really want to waste your time), the logic issues, Jay’s role and everything else is explained. Thanks for taking the time to read.

  61. My reason for not providing a point-by-point rebuttal can be found in the edited part of this comment:

  62. Appreciate all the research and work you out into this. What if Bilal planned the entire thing, threatened/manipulated Jay into participating, and framed Anand?

  63. If this theory is true (and it makes sense that it is, perfectly so), what doesn't make sense to me is why a nice guy like Adnan would want the girl he loves dead just because she broke his heart. I certainly see why Bilal would, if he knows that she knows what he's done to Adnan. But Bilal's role in the whole thing leads me to believing that Adnan was not a psychopath himself but was only being manipulated by one. I wonder if this was just one more thing Bilal manipulated him into thinking/doing somehow. And because of the shame of the abuse, and the shame of being manipulated into killing someone he loved, he can't come clean.

  64. I'm relieved to have a thorough counter-argument. This is a fascinating and well-thought-out series of posts. Any ideas about the "double diamond" marks?

  65. I just read your post. First of all, thank you for the detailed write up and for all the efforts you’ve put into researching this case, it’s truly impressive. I do have a question related to paragraph 2 of the Audible section that I was hoping you could answer - how would Adnan have driven Hae’s car to Jay’s house?

  66. Good question. Those details are a bit hazy because of Jay's differing accounts. You need to piece together different parts of the story to land there. Jay claims in the intercept interview that he and Adnan parted ways after leaving Kristi's house and that he was at home when Adnan called him and showed up at Jay's grandma's house in Hae's car. Adnan's phone shows no such call to Jay's number (would be after the 6:24 PM Adcock call).

  67. It’s tough to give your argument any credence when you don’t provide a “why”. Your well written analysis turned in to nothing more than a conspiracy theory at that point which sucks, because everything else you’ve provided up to now has been great.

  68. I'm listening to Serial again for the 4th or 5th time, and as i was reading this, i kept thinking about the "what am i going to say?" call Kristi describes. Op posits that Bilal doesn't call Adnan’s cell until Jan 26, but we wouldn't know if he did from a phone other than his own. So could the "what am i going to say?" call have come from Bilal? Adnan is not at a loss for words in too many of his conversations with SK, but he is in the conversation about this call. He actually says, after an awkwardly long pause, "but then it still leaves us with the(!) third person?" If this was a hypothetical person, it seems he would have said "a third person", not "the third person", so the use of "the" here makes me think he's thinking of a specific person. Now maybe there was a discussion between him and SK before this one where they discuss a third person, in which case "the third person" would make sense. But it's curious, to me.

  69. Great analysis! I'm still pretty new to the Adnan rabbit hole (really only getting interested after his release) and just found this post. A few questions about this post and the "stick a fork in asia" post:

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