When I was in high school we had a teacher who did something similar with plain m&ms. One kid assumed that the teacher had just bought one or two of the biggest bags she could at the store and dumped it all into the jar. So he went out to the store during lunch, looked at the back of the 1lb bag to see the serving size and how many servings per bag, and did some quick multiplication. He guessed it right within about 1% or something like that. I think the prize was extra credit on the next exam, plus he got to keep the candy.

Similar competition, at work. I remembered a paper I'd read on estimation of oblate spheroids (m&ms), and the packing ratio number they calculated. Got it to within a handful of m&ms (the answer was like 1260, I think I got like 1248 or something).

OP for your best shot, wait til this post dies down and ppl stop commenting, then average all the answers. there’s science backing the fact that for something like this, the average of all answers will probably be fairly accurate.

It's like when a big group of drunk idiots try to sing at the bar and are perfectly on key because everyone is missing the note up and down by a tiny amount and it averages out to perfect.

Looks like a 10L jar to me. It’s about 80% full and if we assume like 50% stacking efficiency that’s 4000cm³ of candy. Looks like it’s half gummy bears which are 2cm³ and half bigger candy that are probably like 10cm³. That comes out to be 2800 piecies of candy that I will be proudly announcing as my final answer

I'd just think about it like it's filled with gravel which usually had a void ratio of 0.3 to 0.4, and I always use 0.3. Now gravel and gummies aren't exactly comparable in terms of physical properties since the gummies are usually compressible, but maybe they're really stale.

Man once the contest is over. It would be awesome if we could find the actual volume of one gummy bear and the white candy. To find the %error. To see how close everyone got

OK...I reckon there are about 19 layers. Average layer looks to have about 6 sweets in a quarter circumference. Call it 4x 20 sweets per layer. 80x19 is 1520.

I counted 19 vertically too, but to me it seems like there are about 60 a layer (the odd shapes make some of them look like multiple pieces from this angle) so 1180, but I’ll go up a bit and guess 1281 for fun.

I estimated the circumference of each section of the jar using the candies as a reference then did the math to subtract the size of the candies from the radius as we move inward to calculate the total number of candies in each layer.

2200, Math says that people collectively make very good predictions, when you add up all predictions and take an average out of them it comes pretty close to the actual answer. my answer is eyeballed based on top 2 comments (only ones there are at the moment of me writing this, i might update it later)

I apologize to everyone. We were told that a winner would be announced today, but my work decided they would announce the winner on Monday. I promise I will tell you guys as soon as I can.

I won one of these in school and took home a giant beanbag lion plush. 4 days later baby spiders exploded out of it into my bedroom. The exterminators took 3 days to clear the house while the 3 of us stayed in a single person caravan.

Based off 20oz measurements estimated to be around a 680 oz filled portion and a very small amount of space per candy i am estimating this is approximately 3200 pieces of candy. I did this off the top of my head so the math is likely pretty off.

Someone said 4K and he did the math (pun not intended) but i feel like bcz of how much there is, the candy at the bottom should take less space than they actually do so i feel like the number should be more but 4K is already a big number... my final answer 4375

this is much closer to the real number, I don’t even think there’s a full 10lbs. i bet the real number is around 600 odd, just based purely on feel for the larger gummy size and the bear size and knowing this container (have a restaurant). people always overestimate topology and assume much more dense stacking, these are resting on each other with loads of space between…

Here’s my unusually large guess. I think the perspective of this image is fucking up the proportions a little. I can’t find a Mountain Dew bottle smaller than 20oz with the same design in the image. Based off that, here’s my in depth calculations motivated by procrastinating the most tedious data entry task I’ve been given at work to date.

Funny story: When I was in Kindergarten, my school had organized a competition where the parents of the children had to guess how many pieces of candy corn were in a jar. They put the jar along with the rest of the equipment for other competitions. Buuut, nobody told me it was meant for a guessing game. What was I supposed to do? Not try some candy I'd never had before?!

I took an avg of every ones best comments. Using that with the parhergorime theorem. 58008 is the answer. I’m also a math magician. Yes you read that right I wear a blue wizard hat and everything.

People are aiming for high numbers, but this jar doesn't seem all that big to me. If i'm guessing correctly, it would go from around 10 at the bottom and adds up more 10 each time it gets wider (and sometimes an extra 5), and it gets narrower at the top, so it's somewhere around 10 + 10 + 15 + 20 + 20 + 25 + 30 + 25 + 20+ 20 + 15 = 210.

General Discussion Thread

When I was in high school we had a teacher who did something similar with plain m&ms. One kid assumed that the teacher had just bought one or two of the biggest bags she could at the store and dumped it all into the jar. So he went out to the store during lunch, looked at the back of the 1lb bag to see the serving size and how many servings per bag, and did some quick multiplication. He guessed it right within about 1% or something like that. I think the prize was extra credit on the next exam, plus he got to keep the candy.

Ooh! Very creative!

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Similar competition, at work. I remembered a paper I'd read on estimation of oblate spheroids (m&ms), and the packing ratio number they calculated. Got it to within a handful of m&ms (the answer was like 1260, I think I got like 1248 or something).

OP for your best shot, wait til this post dies down and ppl stop commenting, then average all the answers. there’s science backing the fact that for something like this, the average of all answers will probably be fairly accurate.

Yeah wanted to say just this, I think it is called Wisdom of the Crowd

Calculated as of 5:30 New York time Feb 9th

And I will add your answer to the numbers and recalculate

It's like when a big group of drunk idiots try to sing at the bar and are perfectly on key because everyone is missing the note up and down by a tiny amount and it averages out to perfect.

He actually wants the median value; which is not sensitive to outlier answers.

what if my answer is 9748184719 gummi bears? wouldnt that skyrocket the average? 🗿

Looks like a 10L jar to me. It’s about 80% full and if we assume like 50% stacking efficiency that’s 4000cm³ of candy. Looks like it’s half gummy bears which are 2cm³ and half bigger candy that are probably like 10cm³. That comes out to be 2800 piecies of candy that I will be proudly announcing as my final answer

2801 Bob!

theydidthemath

2,799

I’m going with 2801.

I do t think it's half and half though. Maybe close to it, but looks like more gummy bears to me.

I agree with your assessment of a 10L jar, I found a remarkably similar one on Amazon here:

I'd just think about it like it's filled with gravel which usually had a void ratio of 0.3 to 0.4, and I always use 0.3. Now gravel and gummies aren't exactly comparable in terms of physical properties since the gummies are usually compressible, but maybe they're really stale.

ok so im saying 2831 then

This is definitely a

65% packing seems really high for something that behaves as a platelet. I would put it at 55% myself.

Man once the contest is over. It would be awesome if we could find the actual volume of one gummy bear and the white candy. To find the %error. To see how close everyone got

I was gonna pixel-scale the size of the candy from the mountain dew bottle, but you saved me a lot of times lol.

It also says closest without going over so a little bit of an underestimate might not be bad

627

Why are we waiting until the 2nd of November? /s

february 11. 2 days. Are you in the EU?

OK...I reckon there are about 19 layers. Average layer looks to have about 6 sweets in a quarter circumference. Call it 4x 20 sweets per layer. 80x19 is 1520.

This is how I won the jelly bean jar 5 years in a row before the Church event organizers banned me from using my math to win. I was an upset kid.

Then my guess is 1602!

I counted 19 vertically too, but to me it seems like there are about 60 a layer (the odd shapes make some of them look like multiple pieces from this angle) so 1180, but I’ll go up a bit and guess 1281 for fun.

I estimated the circumference of each section of the jar using the candies as a reference then did the math to subtract the size of the candies from the radius as we move inward to calculate the total number of candies in each layer.

2200, Math says that people collectively make very good predictions, when you add up all predictions and take an average out of them it comes pretty close to the actual answer. my answer is eyeballed based on top 2 comments (only ones there are at the moment of me writing this, i might update it later)

This is what I was going to do : /

if they don't have information of other guesses, that is, but we can see other comments

That's the way I was going to do it too. Drat!

Answer: 2717

One dude was pretty close with 2724

In 1 month, assuming there is heating in the building and there is little agitation, there will be exactly 1 very large piece of candy in that jar.

Hey guys, is this subreddit 'They Made a Guess' or 'They Did the Math'?

I enjoyed your math!

I apologize to everyone. We were told that a winner would be announced today, but my work decided they would announce the winner on Monday. I promise I will tell you guys as soon as I can.

that’s ok take ur time

WE DEMAND A N S W E R S

Lets see people, do i deserve my username?

YOU WERE OFF BY JUST 10!

The Mountain Dew bottle is 20oz

I won one of these in school and took home a giant beanbag lion plush. 4 days later baby spiders exploded out of it into my bedroom. The exterminators took 3 days to clear the house while the 3 of us stayed in a single person caravan.

Based off 20oz measurements estimated to be around a 680 oz filled portion and a very small amount of space per candy i am estimating this is approximately 3200 pieces of candy. I did this off the top of my head so the math is likely pretty off.

Someone said 4K and he did the math (pun not intended) but i feel like bcz of how much there is, the candy at the bottom should take less space than they actually do so i feel like the number should be more but 4K is already a big number... my final answer 4375

You know how you win this competition?

Is this an experiment on the

1920

1080

3200

2802

3218 Bob.

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1,061

this is much closer to the real number, I don’t even think there’s a full 10lbs. i bet the real number is around 600 odd, just based purely on feel for the larger gummy size and the bear size and knowing this container (have a restaurant). people always overestimate topology and assume much more dense stacking, these are resting on each other with loads of space between…

Here’s my unusually large guess. I think the perspective of this image is fucking up the proportions a little. I can’t find a Mountain Dew bottle smaller than 20oz with the same design in the image. Based off that, here’s my in depth calculations motivated by procrastinating the most tedious data entry task I’ve been given at work to date.

I guess 7340. Lol

Ah man just let me have some! Tell you what, if you can guess how many I want I’ll give you a prize. If you guessed a handful, then you are correct!

Funny story: When I was in Kindergarten, my school had organized a competition where the parents of the children had to guess how many pieces of candy corn were in a jar. They put the jar along with the rest of the equipment for other competitions. Buuut, nobody told me it was meant for a guessing game. What was I supposed to do? Not try some candy I'd never had before?!

I took an avg of every ones best comments. Using that with the parhergorime theorem. 58008 is the answer. I’m also a math magician. Yes you read that right I wear a blue wizard hat and everything.

People are aiming for high numbers, but this jar doesn't seem all that big to me. If i'm guessing correctly, it would go from around 10 at the bottom and adds up more 10 each time it gets wider (and sometimes an extra 5), and it gets narrower at the top, so it's somewhere around 10 + 10 + 15 + 20 + 20 + 25 + 30 + 25 + 20+ 20 + 15 = 210.

Lmao are you blind

I feel like there's far more than 210 gummies visible in just the pic, let alone however many are in the center/back side of the jar.

This has to be sarcastic

If everyone in this thread makes a guess, and then we calculate the average, it will be the real answer. 400.

1555

2500

3182

1826

1422

618

3001

2,145

3144

Like 3100?

2969

2845

3056

2865

1050 pieces.

928

3109

2088