I know this might seem like wishful thinking, but do you think that Ukraine will take down Kerch Bridge finally once and for all tomorrow as part of the fundamental decisions made for Ukraine in the urgent meeting Friday morning before Putin’s annexation speech? Or are there other things, too?

  1. From the outside looking in, I think that those in charge on the Ukrainian side have repeatedly demonstrated that they know what they are doing. For this reason I have full faith in their decision making when it comes to such things.

  2. Yes, and there is not just one single reason. This is a really good video that breaks down options and scenarios and the strategic value of that bridge:

  3. Ukraine will do things on Ukraine's schedule. While russia is wasting their time with stupid games, Ukraine is focused on winning the war.

  4. I'm wondering if Ukraine might conduct a raid into Russia to destroy logistics hubs and cut off the Russian forces.

  5. I'm fairly certain that it's already been done in some cases. It's in neither parties interest to admit it, though.

  6. It is wishful thinking. The only thing that can take down the bridge is a sustained air attack, and Ukraine has no capacity to wage one.

  7. I agree with your second paragraph... as for the first... never underestimate Ukrainian ingenuity if they decide that it's in their strategic interest, they will somehow get it done... we will see what happens

  8. That's true in a small area but this is the entire peninsula and there are plenty of other ways to exit Crimea including boats and planes even if all land access were cut off.

  9. Even if it would be in range of Ukrainian artillery (which it is not, I doubt even ATACMS can reach it before it gets shot down) and even if it would be a priority (which it is not atm), one simply does not destroy a massive bridge just like that.

  10. Psychologically just a few missles would create widespread panic in Crimea and a mass exodus. The news back in Russia would certainly be bad for Putin, even if the bridge wasn't taken out.

  11. What makes you say that? To me and 5 star armchair general (admiral too when necessary), Kherson area is where Russia is focusing their military which is why we see so little movement on those front lines and them being so weak further north. The good guys are cutting off supply lines from the North so there will be even greater reliance on the Kerch bridge. If Ukraine is going to take Kherson, the need to cut that supply line.

  12. Ukraine doesn't have the power to take it down. Look at the other bridges they've hit, which are much closer. They just end up with holes in the road, which helps...but take down a whole bridge? Not yet

  13. I don't know...Ukrainians have proven to be impressively innovative. No one thought they would have been able to sink the Moskva but "russian warship, go fuck yourself!" happened!!

  14. Answer to your question via presidential advisor Arestovych's daily long-form chats as translated into English by the War Translated project:

  15. For missiles with near ballistic trajectories like the GMLRS or ATACMs, range is directly related to speed. ATACMs launches higher and farther and faster than GMLRS. Both are supersonic.

  16. I heard from one of Arestovich’s daily YouTube videos that a bridge that size would take an enormous amount of explosives to destroy. So, prob won’t happen any time soon.

  17. Size has nothing to do with structural integrity. The bigger it is the stronger it needs to be, but also the bigger the tradeoffs that have to be made bus a vis weight etc. It is a longer than usual bridge which means it is a delicate balance between strength and weight. There are a number of reports that the engineering is suspect.

  18. i would love it as a pure flex-slash-spite move. but i can't work out if it would be strategic at this point or not, and ther'es the problem of doing it in the middle of the day when there's more likely to be civilian traffic on it.

  19. Russia is hoping that the world will do what I am afraid it might do. And that is, accept this as a means of ceasing hostilities but keeping sanctions in place with a view that sanctions will force them to capitulate in the long run. Meanwhile Russia hopes that the world will get tired before they do and just cause a political stalemate.

  20. Now you need big bombs if you are going to take the bridge down with strikes from above. I do not know if they have the capability and they would probably need to re-engineer the warhead but those harpoon missiles could hit the vertical peers from the side and would not even need to completely destroy them to make them unable to carry design loads. They are tall and relatively thin so damage to them could cause a buckling from the loads on top. 'From the side they look just like a ship only not moving.

  21. While I am not privy to any information anyone else has, it is quite clear that Ukraine has a plan and that they are very good at implementing it.

  22. Kerch bridge may never come down. Crimea is more valuable for having it. If you can take Crimea in the future without needing to destroy the bridge then why wreck it? When they start to look at Crimea in earnest is when we will see them start to make the decision of whether it even needs to come down.

  23. The bridge is only valuable to Crimea if there's trade and travel across it. Once Ukraine controls Crimea, I can't imagine a lot of travel or even trade unless the Russian government has fallen and been replaced by something fundamentally different.

  24. Forget about the bridge, it isn't that important now. When UAF liberates Melitopol it will be priceless - then it falls. It will be the final blow to the whole fucking invasion force, cut in half, Chrimea cut off, anti ship missiles in range all around Sevastopol. A shitstorm.

  25. Probably not. The Bridge was some thing they planned to build eventually with russian help, and now its just done and Ukraine didn't pay for it.

  26. Have you seen what it takes to destroy a bridge? Have you seen Antonovsky bridge in Kherson? That's taken probably about 16 HIMARS already.

  27. With what ? The bridge of Kherson are still somewhat standing even after constant bombardment. They are out service sure, but they could be repaired given time.

  28. Might want to brace yourself in advance. Crimea will likely be the compromise/trade-off in future negotiations.

  29. They can take out the bridge just by launching a dozen or two dozen missiles since Russia doesn't have the capability to stop everything at once, combine that with a few drones to confuse the mix and maybe jets can pass by with flares.

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