MOS been climbing like crazy last month or so but has flatlined. I have shares and was planning on selling til I saw this. Would a shortage hurt MOS since they are U.S. based?
I wish BNSF would lock us out. Fuck the railroads. We live a shitry lifestyle and haven't received any raises and they want us to take concessions on insurance.
Rail traffic was already super fucked before this. I can’t imagine Tacoma and Vancouver are going to have easy times shipping the thousands of backlogged containers east either.
if the lock out ends MOS will pull back, but the effects on the supply chain will continue long enough so the price should have support even at high levels.
It’s not a strike, it’s a lock out. I don’t know Canadian law, but I’m guessing that the union strike fund, probably doesn’t pay out on a lock out. And if it does they will try to keep them out until it’s depleted. I hope they started a special assessment of the members for this contingency
It looks like this is affecting CNR (Canadian National Railway) more than CP's stock price. I'd have thought this would be good for CNR since they could pick up the slack.
Raw materials for Diesel exhaust fluid is urea and water. Urea is nitrogen fertilizer so let’s look at trucking maintenance companies as getting a windfall in their good value rising. What’s a company that supplies diesel treatment chemicals to consumers?
So they get mad at the truckers for staging protests, and freeze their bank accounts, now when you will need trucks the company does this… timing is wonky IMO, like a government movement on organized labor or something, we only let you think you have freedoms, when it’s necessary and in governments best interests
Boats are probably a lot more expensive than rail, plus you have to get it to the boats and if that's not by rail? Truckers and gas are expensive as fuck. The boats probably have other contracts to ship stuff too.
yes. I did. As the share price goes up, the value of the calls I bought will increase. The faster/higher the price rises the more disproportionately the call price will rise.
Any update on the lockout or strike? I tried googling it but didn’t find much. I bought a April 8th $70 mos call because of your post! Now I just wish I woulda have bought a bunch of them. It’s up 60%, so thank you.
No fertilizer you say … well, shit.
Use the animal dung and you have fertilizer
What you eat don’t make me shit.
"I'm only one man, Marge"
"...will hit the roof" well, how low is the roof?
Hey buddy. You aren't supposed to put money into a company when you get news of them incurring losses.
TIFU by taking delivery of 12,000 lbs of fertilizer and being interrogated by the ATF and FBI
MOS been climbing like crazy last month or so but has flatlined. I have shares and was planning on selling til I saw this. Would a shortage hurt MOS since they are U.S. based?
I wish BNSF would lock us out. Fuck the railroads. We live a shitry lifestyle and haven't received any raises and they want us to take concessions on insurance.
Do they still have the railroad pension?
Oil too. They ship Canadian oil sands to the states
Wouldn't be surprised if the Government intervened if this lasts any longer than necessary. This should be a great shitshow
Im a contractor and do a ton of work for CP in Ontario. Interesting. I need to find out more info on this.
Rail traffic was already super fucked before this. I can’t imagine Tacoma and Vancouver are going to have easy times shipping the thousands of backlogged containers east either.
Ukraine is also a top supplier of fertilizer and grain so prices will just keep going up.
Looks like i will be scooping up CP shares on the cheap in the next few days
Buying puts on CP should be good too?
How will the situation look if lockout ends in a few weeks, MOS drops? Also, is there a source for fertilizer delivery market share?
if the lock out ends MOS will pull back, but the effects on the supply chain will continue long enough so the price should have support even at high levels.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/fertilizer.html
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It’s not a strike, it’s a lock out. I don’t know Canadian law, but I’m guessing that the union strike fund, probably doesn’t pay out on a lock out. And if it does they will try to keep them out until it’s depleted. I hope they started a special assessment of the members for this contingency
It looks like this is affecting CNR (Canadian National Railway) more than CP's stock price. I'd have thought this would be good for CNR since they could pick up the slack.
Raw materials for Diesel exhaust fluid is urea and water. Urea is nitrogen fertilizer so let’s look at trucking maintenance companies as getting a windfall in their good value rising. What’s a company that supplies diesel treatment chemicals to consumers?
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Another layer- doubtful Ukraine will be able to plant in spring or harvest winter wheat this summer. Not looking good
Sounds like Canadia needs a lil democracy via the US Military Industrial Complex
So they get mad at the truckers for staging protests, and freeze their bank accounts, now when you will need trucks the company does this… timing is wonky IMO, like a government movement on organized labor or something, we only let you think you have freedoms, when it’s necessary and in governments best interests
This is all under the assumption that none of the US's imports from Canada come via boat.
there is no spare capacity to take over what the railway transfers. Besides, how are you going to take it to the port in the first place?
I'd wager the vast majority is on rail at one point or another.
Youd be suprised how much bunker oil a ship burns when its steaming uphill through the rockies on the way to its next port of call
Boats are probably a lot more expensive than rail, plus you have to get it to the boats and if that's not by rail? Truckers and gas are expensive as fuck. The boats probably have other contracts to ship stuff too.
You have absolutly no idea what your talking about. Inverse this guys opinion
Emergency war measures and swastikas flying from trains inbound!
CP should go down. Short sell?
Phrasing....
This fight for a contract is also happening here in the US. But I doubt our railroad will shut down.
That also includes MOS inputs. Production halts.
So do I get it right, that you bought OTM calls?
yes. I did. As the share price goes up, the value of the calls I bought will increase. The faster/higher the price rises the more disproportionately the call price will rise.
Is this true?
So NTR and Canadian oil production stocks about to tank?
Like Buffet said 10 years ago, don’t bet against the railroads.
Any update on the lockout or strike? I tried googling it but didn’t find much. I bought a April 8th $70 mos call because of your post! Now I just wish I woulda have bought a bunch of them. It’s up 60%, so thank you.
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Sound like you don’t live in Canada or understand unions? So canpotex has a contract with C.N?
Perfect. I'll grab some other transport shares and weat and agrium - anything else?