Vladimir Putin's inner circle 'believe Ukraine war is lost and Russia faces coup'

  1. “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

  2. Lies are like a debt. Sooner or later you pay, with interest. Sometimes, truth collects by force all at once, in which case you get cataclysms like the fall of the USSR or the French Revolution.

  3. What is the cost of lies? It’s not that we’ll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth at all.

  4. This is the end result of lying in politics. If we no longer care about facts and truth then the ruling class can send us to our deaths without accountability.

  5. Historically the regime change in Russia came from elites. Uprising of folks on its own, while being vital, might not be enough. Current regime knows this, hance the current position hunt

  6. The cultural significance of the Russian soldier's mother cannot be understated. It's precisely why there were so many videos of newly surrendered and captured Russians calling their mothers.

  7. One of the reasons why there was an uprising in Libya, is because of a massacre that happened at a prison. The state lied about it. The families wouldn’t stop asking questions. When the Arab Spring came around, it got resurged as a big problem.

  8. I'm surprised that the elite even know the truth. That was a big theme in a book I read on Chernobyl... even the Soviet leaders got bad information about what was happening on the ground because everyone lied top to bottom.

  9. This is Ukrainian propaganda aimed at making Putin even more paranoid, and I am all for it. Amazing what happens when a country actually pushes back on Russian propaganda.

  10. Sounds great on the surface, but be careful what you wish for. We can hope, but I seriously doubt they would replace Putin with somebody less fanatical. They'd want to replace him with somebody that will win.

  11. The interesting (and scary) thing is that if the senior Russian leadership DOES want to overthrow Putin and earn goodwill in the world to begin walking back the atrocities, they may just throw Putin under the bus. Just say he wanted to launch nukes, regardless of if he actually did, and arrest him and turn him over to the UN or kill him. Say they stopped a global catastrophe and they'll turn the tides on the bad blood. Or at least slow the flow

  12. Removing Putin might be the only play Russian officials have to get sanctions lifted. Prior to the invasion of Crimea Russia's annual GDP was $2.1 trillion. Since the Crimea related sanctions have been in place Russia's GDP had been $1.4 trillion. Now with the Ukraine war and great sanctions Russia's GDP moving forward will be less than half of what it was prior to Crimea.

  13. Removing Putin should be an unconditional requirement before even thinking about lifting sanctions.

  14. The issue is that as long as the west continues to buy Russian oil and gas, then there is still a lot of money sloshing about for Putin to fund the war, and maintain the loyalty of the elites that surround him.

  15. that gdp fall wasn't just sanctions oil fell dramatically in 2014. Canada's nominal gdp didn't recover to 2014 levels till the pandemic.

  16. Not if they replace him with one of his cronies, like Medvedev, Lavrov or some other complicit asshole. Russia needs a big shake up for anyone to take them seriously again. Someone like Navalny, although I realize that's a big stretch.

  17. There is nothing left to be won for Russia in Ukraine. The entire endeavor was a massive intelligence failure for Putin. It has exposed Russia's military capabilities to be far inferior to what was previously thought. Russia has a 1980's military and that is proving to be ineffective against even domestic level current technology.

  18. Kleptocracy, Bribery, Corruption eroded all power that once existed under the now uncovered hollow, devoid inhumane thing called Russia. Shame.

  19. So I used to work for a 3 letter agency that watched Russia. This has been known for YEARS by the American intel community. I would never have guessed it was THIS BAD tho.

  20. While it was a major military failure on all levels, Russia still has important points to secure in Ukraine.

  21. And when you've got Amazon purchased quadrotor drones dropping improvised mortars directly on top of unsuspecting Russian soldier heads, you know you aren't ready for any inkling of modern warfare. What's not being discussed in detail is not just the massive failure of the Russian military and Intel community, but how this invasion has practically given the west (the US) a free campaign to wargame and test new munitions and platforms in a conventional scenario. It's been almost 20 years since 2003 when the US last ran battlefield "tests" at this scale. Think of the leap in tech since then. No doubt in my mind that the US military is heavily debating as they learn more about what warfare will look like in the 21st Century to restructure how they fight. Mortar platoons will probably see a shift to Drone platoons. Provide close air/fire mission support via soldier operated drone recon and strikes. The battlefield has massively changed since 2003. And the US is getting a free campaign to test out the last 20 years worth of tech advancement in real scenarios.

  22. I asked my air force officer best friend a while back how superior America was compared to other militaries. He said there’s no comparison. The simple fact is that the US is leagues beyond any other military on the planet.

  23. I agree with all of that, but technological insufficiency isn’t where it stops. I have a hard time believing the US military of the ‘70s-‘80s would be unable to keep fuel in its tanks, and odds are we would have been hauling it over much greater distances than Russia is today. This is either corruption or incompetence to the point of breakdown…on top of technical retardation.

  24. neither does ukraine, you can still win a war without using the most recent tech. I think their problem has more to do with intelligence and logistics

  25. It hasn’t exposed the most important part of the military though, their nuclear stockpile is (or was) the worlds largest. Now it’s fair to think that a warhead that could flatten a city back in the day still could now as long as it has been maintained but have they maintained the kit. They sure hadn’t maintained those Soviet era tanks or brought along enough fuel or by the sounds of it changed the batteries in the radios.

  26. You are right but lets not forget that Ukrainian army had NATO level weaponry and years of preparations too. Ukraine is not a banana state.

  27. That’s the point of all this. I highly doubt anyone knows what chaos is erupting from putin’s inner circle so stories like this is just to create paranoia among putin’s allies and potentially push his supporters to jump ship

  28. In russia? The country LARPing as a “great”, temporarily inconvenienced super empire? The country where the majority supports putin and this war?

  29. Temporarily maybe. The new leader may end the war in Ukraine and roll it up and hang it on Putins neck. But make no mistake,the next President will learn from this and at some point they will try again. It’s in their nature to command and conquer.

  30. I don't see it. It will probably be someone high up in his mafia circle. I doubt there will be any other group that can compete with Putins mafia. There's probably a chance they'll continue on the same path as Putin, who knows if Putin is alone making decisions or his group is.

  31. You've seen what he does to unwanted competitors such as Navalny. Putin will pick his successor himself, so I expect things to only get worse.

  32. As soon as the negative impacts of the war reach the Russians in cities there will be a peoples revolution. Once the dust settles Navalny will be elected leader. Maybe not the most probable outcome but a possible scenario.

  33. Why would oligarchs stop him they require his support, surely it would be from the people or within the army

  34. Ukraine is different. They inflicted the casualties Russia sustained during 9 years of Afghanistan in only 2 months. Russia is getting the shit kicked out of them.

  35. I agree with that, however the world was not sanctioning the shit out of Russia back then, so maybe there s hope.

  36. man. I love all these news but skeptical me always assumes they are all lies/propaganda. I mean don't get me wrong propaganda is necessary but I am afraid to be overly optimistic about it.

  37. Let's be completely honest, Russia NEEDS a coup! The only concern is exactly who will get dragged into leadership in the event of a coup and what will their philosophy be regarding Russia's interactions with their European and Asian neighbors.

  38. Wonder what the ethnic Russians will think when they find out that the Chechans have been slaughtering their children, friends and family for retreating.

  39. The Metro (and the Mail) are shit sources, but these quotes come from Christo Grozev, who is very, very reliable.

  40. It's not their own reporting, they're citing Christo Grozev of Bellingcat. Stories like this are never a certainty of course but he is a highly respected journalist specializing in Russia who uncovered a lot of details about the Skripal poisonings, Navalny poisoning, and Malaysia Airlines flight 17 among other stories related to Russia and Russian intelligence agencies.

  41. The news about Putin's terminal illness, Russia losing the war massively, plans of coups, or the war ending "soon" in 1 way or another we've been hearing since the beginning are sadly just pure hopium.

  42. These articles just strike me the same way as the "We have evidence against Trump, he's so screwed!" articles.: Sure, that sounds nice to hear but put up or shut up.

  43. Veracity of reports on how the war is going can be estimated by the change in occupied area (which is relatively easy to decipher) by that metric, the war is going very poorly for Russia compared to initial and early revised estimates.

  44. Apparently OP doesn't understand propaganda. I don't think Metro has access to Putin's inner circle or the random journalist they quote. Read his quotes. The article quotes the journalists speculations, but interestingly no quotes directly from the "inner circle". First sign this is a BS opinion piece.

  45. I wish I could believe anything anyone says about that part of the world, but I have to chalk it up to propaganda until I see otherwise just like everything else

  46. That's a great face saving technique. Blame it all on Putin. Lock him up and declare peace and withdraw forces.

  47. The can rid themselves of Putin but until they rid themselves of the oligarchs and the rampant corruption then nothing will change for the better. Sadly, it will only keep repeating itself as it's done for decades.

  48. I think this article is highly speculative in nature, without any leads to confirm pretty much anything, with the exception of the ongoing exodus out of Russia.

  49. As much as I want this to be true, and believe it to be plausible, this is the sort of report that is likely as not to be propaganda.

  50. This is a pretty bad article. The only source in this article is Christo Grozev, who is Bulgarian and definitely NOT residing in Moscow at the moment. Moreover, he's a core member of Bellingcat and helped Navalny find the people who tried to kill him. So...as a journalist I'd try to find other sources besides this one.

  51. This is according to an analyst, and while I do want it to be true, that is the exact reason why I don't trust it. Analysts are wrong all the time. Their job is to make educated guesses, but educated or not, a guess is still a guess.

  52. For the people who aren't going to read the article, this is a claim by citizen journalist who has no contact and no access to Putin's inner circle. The outlet they're citing that this person works for regularly regurgitates Western intelligence talking points.

  53. If Russia collapses for the second time in thirty years, we must hope that its fall will be better managed than the previous time, to prevent the advent of another Putin.

  54. It is a fine headline but it is really reminiscent of the headlines throughout the Trump presidency that his inner-circle was going to turn on him at any moment. I'll believe it when I see it -

  55. assuming they cease hostilities, we should maintain all sanctions until Russia formally apologizes to Ukraine and gives them 2T$ to rebuild. They could resume oil and gas as long as 80% of that money went to Ukraine. Putin must be put no trial for war crimes and spend the rest of his miserable life in a cell. And - Russia has legit election for his successor (assuming that is possible anywhere at this point)

  56. This article is a non story. The investative journalist and "expert" is only postulating all these things. There is no information as to what makes him an expert and none of the things he suggests are from any mentioned source, anonymous or otherwise.

  57. First, it was all the stories about his failing health and how he will die any day now. Now it's about how his closest allies will turn on him any day now...

  58. I'm old enough to remember when analysts predicted that the people of Iraq would welcome American help creating a democracy.

  59. As much as I want to believe this, it's very tough to believe 'an analyst' during wartime. Let's see what happens.

  60. Absolutely, it's nothing to do with not them wanting to engage with someone who is being unreasonably aggressive. If you can't debate without resorting to insults, expect to get blocked.

  61. If they coup the fuck outta Putin and give up Crimea I think they could save a little face. A poorly decapitated face.

  62. Coups in Russia are rare but not unheard of. The last one (that I know of) was the 1993 Constitutional Crisis in which Boris Yeltsin attempted to dissolve the Russian Parliament. He was impeached and the vice-president was appointed as acting-president. Yeltsin eventually won by using military force.

  63. They better not lift sanctions on this s***** country until all the nukes are gone. This culture has proven themselves incapable of having nuclear arms or any other kind of weapon of mass destruction.

  64. They lost the war in the first week. Ever since then they were never fighting to win the war, just determine how badly theyd lose it.

  65. Is there a better source for this than UK tabloids? That's all that ever gets to the front page here.

  66. Imagine being from such a shithole country and being so convinced your superior to the ones your invading that you have the gal to spend your free time trolling your victims on the internet all while your brother goes to the front line and gets absolutely waxed by an old man carrying just a hunting rifle.

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